Well, the NBA Draft is less than 4 months away, and I haven’t made a post about it. That all changes today. Today, I’ll make a blog post on my projections for the lottery picks of the 2023 NBA Draft. This draft could be one of the best, up there with ‘84, ‘96, and ‘03. Let’s begin.
Disclaimer: I’m not a professional scout (or semi-pro scout) so these comparisons might not be completely similar. Don’t have a bird, just enjoy.
#1: Victor Wembanyama
From: France (Metropolitans 92)
Position: C
Height: 7’5” (In Shoes)
Age: 19
Realistic Comparison: Yao Ming with a jumper
No surprises here. Victor Wembanyama, the most hyped draft prospect since LeBron James, takes the #1 spot. With Wembanyama, I feel a Yao Ming sort of vibe. A 7 foot a thousand international prospect who is a mystery box. Nobody knows what will happen.
However, what Wembanyama has over Ming is that Wembanyama has a jumper. 30% from 3 on 5 attempts per game. In France, he has had 22 points and 10 rebounds per game. Despite his height, 3.2 blocks per game is still insane.
For being a huge center, 81% from the line is great, and an 8-foot wingspan is among the 99th percentile of NBA players ever. Despite all this, he only gets 2 fouls per game.
This demigod has his weaknesses. He’s had a growth spurt (like he needed one) and is now 7’5” in shoes, and as was the case with Yao Ming, injuries from a gruelling 82-game season in a league with more injuries than ever are a massive concern. He’s also been lifting weights, adding more weight to the 7’5” frame. Also, for a center, 46% from the field is not ideal.
I can’t wait to see what Victor Wembanyama brings to the NBA. Let’s hope he can stay healthy.
#2: Scoot Henderson
From: USA (G-League Ignite)
Position: PG
Height: 6’2”
Age: 19
Realistic Comparison: OKC Russell Westbrook
Scoot Henderson is so unlucky to be born when he has. In any other draft, he would likely have been 1st overall. This year, though, it’s Wembanyama stealing the spotlight, and he’s considered “a solid consolation prize”.
Scoot is a great prospect, though. Although he hasn’t played a single NBA game, because of his involvement in the G-League Ignite squad, he’s already played in 2 Rising Stars games. Having averaged 18 points against teams of players just below NBA calibre, as well as 6 assists and 5 rebounds.
He is also a glove, with 1.2 steals per game, and even 0.4 blocks. At 44% from the field, he’s also an efficient shooter. For the most part. Negatives? Scoot has his fair share. Despite being a highly ranked Point Guard well into the three-point era, he only shoots 32%, only making an average of 1 per game. He’s also a foul machine, averaging 3.2 fouls per game. Overall, though, a very solid player.
#3: Brandon Miller
From: Alabama
Position: SF
Height: 6’9”
Age: 20
Realistic Comparison: Andre Iguodala, but better
Brandon Miller, one of the least covered players in this draft, but the highest ranked college player in the draft, though. He averages 19 points and 9 rebounds for a team which finished in the sweet 16 of March Madness.
Miller is also capable of a big game, dropping 36 against the mighty Gonzaga, 31 against LSU, and 41 against South Carolina. He’s also averaged a block per game, and is a great defensive contributor.
The only thing that is confusing about Miller is his shooting. From 3 he shoots 38% on 7 attempts per game, which is great for a Small Forward and from the line he shoots 86%, but his 2-point percentage, at 48%, is not ideal.
Brandon Miller is a very underrated part of this draft which has been led by Scoot and Wembenyama, but perhaps if a guard-heavy team like the Pistons get the #2 selection, taking Miller over Scoot could be a consideration.
#4: Taylor Hendricks
From: USF
Position: PF
Height: 6’9”
Age: 19
Realistic Comparison: Karl Malone
Sure, the comparisons to Karl Malone may be over the top, but he is close to Taylor Hendricks’ style. At only 19, he has averaged 15 points per game for USF, as well as 7 rebounds and nearly 2 blocks.
He is more athletic than his age would lead on and is a rock solid defender. He is quick as well, making him perfect for positionless defending. Only a 4-star recruit coming out of high school now in 4th place in my mock draft as a freshman, Taylor Hendricks has had a huge rise this season.
All this said, it doesn’t look like Taylor Hendricks will come out of the gates and win ROTY. He’s a player who will likely take 2-3 seasons to adjust to the league, so my message to the team that drafts him is to be patient, trust the process, and maybe even try him at SF, where I think he may be a better fit.
#5: Amen Thompson
From: USA (Overtime Elite)
Position: Combo Guard
Height: 6’7”
Age: 20
Realistic Comparison: Shaun Livingston
If anyone can leapfrog Brandon Miller and Taylor Hendricks to get into the top 3, it’ll be Amen Thompson. An oversized guard whose strengths are big strengths and whose weaknesses are big weaknesses, Amen Thompson seems like a created player in a 2k game.
Thompson’s per 36 numbers are eye bulging. 20 points, 8 assists, 8 rebounds, and 3 steals. He is also a brilliant shooter inside the 2-point arc, shooting over 60% from there.
However, with a 64% Free throw percentage and 23% 3-point percentage, long range shooting is a massive issue if he wants to be a guard in this league. He also needs to seriously compose himself, as with 2.6 fouls per game and 4.1 turnovers, he won’t scream reliability.
Amen Thompson seems like a 6’7” Kyrie Irving, mentality wise, but if he can get good mentorship and stay grounded, he has one of the highest ceilings in the whole draft. The only reason I have him below Taylor Hendricks is that he chose the Overtime Elite league (demonstrating his desire to be different even more), and he and his twin brother Ausar are the first high picks to go through this route, while Hendricks chose to go the conventional way – college.
#6: Anthony Black
From: Arkansas
Position: SG
Height: 6’7”
Age: 19
Realistic Comparison: DeMar DeRozan/Ben Simmons
An oversized Shooting Guard, Anthony Black is one of the best passers in the draft with a great dunking ability. He was also part of the Arkansas team that knocked out 1-seed Kansas in the 2nd round in March Madness.
The big-haired guard may not be super fit as a guard, however, with far from ideal scoring stats. 13 points per game on 35 minutes per game, and only 70% from the line of 5 attempts per game.
All in all, Anthony Black needs some tweaks to his shooting game, but his passing is great for any team that drafts him.
#7: Ausar Thompson
From: USA (Overtime Elite)
Position: Combo Guard
Height: 6’7”
Age: 20
Realistic Comparison: 6’7” Chris Paul
People have been putting Amen Thompson ahead of Ausar in these mock drafts, and even though I have Amen 2 spots ahead of Ausar in this mock draft, I’m not convinced. Ausar’s Per 36 numbers are better, with him averaging a very full scoreline of 21/9/8 with 3 and a half steals and 2 blocks every 36 minutes.
The only negative trait Ausar does worse in than his brother is turnovers, getting 4 and a half per 36. However, he isn’t a bad fouler, getting only 2.5 per game. He is still an inefficient shooter, while averaging 48% per game, his 3-point% is 30% and his free-throw percentage is only 67%.
Overall, he’s a great prospect, however, might get looked over for his poor shooting splits, Overtime Elite status, and more highly touted brother.
#8: Cam Whitmore
From: Villanova
Position: SF
Height: 6’7”
Age: 18
Realistic Comparison: Jimmy Butler
A very raw talent in this draft, that’s how to describe Cam Whitmore. One of the youngest players in the draft, Whitmore still needs to refine a lot of parts of his game. While he is a very athletic player, he hasn’t learned how to put it to good use and is often out-rebounded and out blocked. I’d expect him to have a bottom half standing vertical for Small Forwards in the draft combine.
He makes up for it in other ways. His scoring and steal numbers are great for a small forward, and again, he’s young. He has the potential to grow. He won’t be someone who will win ROTY straight out of the blocks. Anyone who drafts him needs to give him time to grow and develop.
#9: Nick Smith Jr.
From: Arkansas
Position: Combo Guard
Height: 6’5”
Age: 18
Realistic Comparison: Lamelo Ball
Nick Smith seems like he’s just missing that one last piece. He missed part of the season through injury, and as a score first player, his shot could be better, and he isn’t a contributor in many other places either.
However, he is a very tall and quick player with time on his side, but one of the boom-or-bust prospects in this draft.
#10: Jarace Walker
From: Houston
Position: SF
Height: 6’8”
Age: 19
Realistic Comparison: Jaren Jackson Jr.
A defensive-minded Small Forward, Jarace Walker has all the tools needed to become an elite defender in this league. He is one of the most physically dominant Small Forwards in this draft.
However, his offensive game is lacking, and that will be something that a lot of teams will be wary of, and might lead to him falling in this draft. He could become a world-class defender in the right system, who knows?
#11: Gradey Dick
From: Kansas
Position: SG
Height: 6’8”
Age: 19
Realistic Comparison: 6’8” Klay Thompson
The first elite shooter in this draft with a 40% record from 3-point land, Gradey Dick is a jack-of-all-trades who is one of my favourite players in this draft. Mind you, I also said that of TyTy Washington, and he’s averaged 5 points this season, but I have more confidence in Dick. His size makes him a real threat from anywhere.
Gradey Dick’s short range game is well-developed, and he is a glove, averaging 1.4 steals per game. However, his rebounding isn’t as good as it should be for a 6’8” guard, and he can be outpaced by his matchups easily.
Although he has faults, I call Gradey Dick to be one of the steals of the draft.
#12: Kris Murray
From: Iowa
Position: Combo Forward
Age: 22
Realistic Comparison: Scottie Barnes
Yes, he is the brother of standout Keegan Murray, and Kris Murray is also the only player here not in his first year of draft eligibility. Compared to the players right above him, Kris Murray has been performing better, with 20 points and 8 rebounds, but again, has a lower ceiling.
Kris Murray is perfect for a team that needs a player for right now, and will likely be one of the best players from this draft in the first season, but will stagnate quickly. He could become a great player though, perhaps even better than his brother.
#13: Jett Howard
From: Michigan
Position: SG
Height: 6’8”
Age: 19
Realistic Comparison: 6’8” Tyler Herro
Another good shooter, and Jett Howard is essentially a Gradey Dick if you can’t draft him. 6’8” shooting guard, and a great shooter. That’s where the comparisons stop, though.
Jett Howard isn’t a very athletic player, something that will bite him when he enters the league, and his passing and quickness games are subpar. He also isn’t a 3 and D guy, his D is lacking a bit. However, he still is a good player and he’s ranked here for a reason.
#14: Cason Wallace
From: Kentucky
Position: Combo Guard
Height: 6’4”
Age: 19
Realistic Comparison: Marcus Smart
Cason Wallace is the ULTIMATE jack of all trades. He is a Mr. Fundamental, and an elite defender while still being above average on the other end of the floor. However, he is, master of pretty much none.
You see, he’s close to being elite in many places, but right now, isn’t. The biggest work he needs is consistency, resulting in him being this low on the list. However, Cason Wallace still has a very high ceiling, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he jumps much higher than 14th on draft night.
That’s all. Thank you for reading this post, it took me a while to do. I finally did a mock draft for 2023, hoping to get at least 2 more up before draft night, and I did enjoy making this one. For now though, I’m Jim James, until next time!