9 months ago, I predicted the Premier League standings for the 22/23 season. With the Final Day done, the standings are set and we can see just how wrong I was.
The scoring system I’ll use is for every 1 position off on a club I am I get a point. The aim is to get as few points as possible. Without further ado, let’s begin.
*This list will be ordered on how I had it back in August, not the actual standings. The teams’ actual finish will be put in brackets next to their name. My thoughts on them back in August will be put in italicized quotes.
20th Place: Bournemouth (15th, +5 points)
“When you go to the Premier League, you need to be prepared. Take it from West Brom in 2020-21 and Watford in 2021-22, you need to make signings, and that is something Bournemouth have failed to do. Only one signing for money, being Marcus Tavernier from Middlesbrough, having also brought in a shell-of-his-former-self Ryan Fredericks and Joe Rothwell. This season will hit Bournemouth like a train and they will go down dead last, getting less than 30 points.”
While to my credit, Bournemouth were 4 points off bottom spot come January, they went on a spending spree in January, signing players such as Ilya Zabarnyi and Dango Ouattara. They also signed Marcos Senesi after I put this up. However, Bournemouth had a much better season than most thought, and so I’m not too ashamed of this one.
19th Place: Everton (17th, +2 points)
“A Shock, I’m sure. Hear me out though. They lost Richarlison, their best player, and brought in Ruben Vinagre, as well as James Tarkowski and Dwight McNeil. Three players whose Premier League confidence is down the drain, and soon they’ll look like regular Everton Rotational Players. James Tarkowski will have the same effect as Jannik Vestergaard at Leicester last season, and Dwight McNeil will be at least 2nd choice by week 5, being benched by Anthony Gordon, Demarai Gray, or Alex Iwobi, and Ruben Vinagre will be one of those players you forgot even played for Everton in 5 years. This season will see the death of the Merseyside Derby as Everton won’t be able to financially recover from relegation, and in a severe case, might even go the way of Derby or Bolton, or worst case, Bury FC.”
I was right about Vinaigre and McNeil. Most of Everton’s transfers came after my prediction, with Amadou Onana, Idrissa Gana Gueye, Conor Coady, James Garner, and Neil Maupay all joining the club after this went up. In all fairness, Everton were one goal away from bringing 71 consecutive years of Premier League football to an end. Everton yet again failed, and need a shakeup in the team to get even remotely near the heights of 4-5 years ago.
18th Place: Leeds (19th, +1 point)
“Why, Jesse Marsh, why? He just spunked the money from Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips on his countrymen, Red Bull players, as well as Luis Sinisterra, a player who screams Alireza Jakanbakhsh, and a version of Marc Roca who is much less than his Espanyol days, but the only player who I see doing well, as well as MAYBE Darko Gyabi. The perfect player was right there though, in Hakim Ziyech. He is low priced at an 8m asking price from Chelsea, and would be the best man to lead Leeds’ rebuild, and would have something to prove after his Chelsea failure. Little risk, high reward. But they didn’t do that, and so I will have to predict relegation.”
Thank goodness I got ONE of the relegated teams correct. I was right in that not many of their signings would succeed. Darko Gyabi didn’t succeed though, either. Not yet, that is; he’s still only 19 years old. Tyler Adams was the only successful signing that had happened when I wrote this. Luis Sinisterra was a similar player to Alireza Jakanbakhsh at Brighton, maybe a bit better. It was overall a deflating season for Leeds, and it’s back to square 1 in the Championship.
17th: Leicester City (18th, +1 point)
“Right now, it would be criminal to suggest that this is even a possibility, but they have signed absolutely NO ONE. The first actual transfer in or out was announced yesterday as Kasper Schmeichel joined Nice for 1 million, making their #1 Danny Ward and having little money to find an adequate replacement. They are also set to lose Wesley Fofana, Youri Tielemans, and James Maddison this month, and might be forced into panic buys that won’t turn out. Caglar Soyuncu will jump ship in January, which could force Leicester in a CB partnership of Jannik Vestergaard and Jonny Evans, who will then be 35, Harvey Barnes will have a terrible season which will cement his status as an almost big money signing, and the two bright spots will be Patson Daka and Wilfried Ndidi, who will leave in Summer 2023.”
I’m proud of myself for this one. However, I thought more of their stars would leave, but they were just that bad as a unit. Harvey Barnes didn’t have a terrible season, but not a good season either. Caglar Soyuncu is jumping ship to Atleti this summer instead of this past January. Putting Leicester this far down, much further down than most had them, and the risk paid off.
16th: Wolves (13th, +3 points)
“Their main cast isn’t getting any younger, and with Ruben Neves on his way out seemingly, there will be a dreary attitude in the dressing room with no new faces, and an injury crisis, they will fall. Bruno Lage will be out by the World Cup, and they will sleepwalk to barely survive in May.”
My Bruno Lage prediction was spot on, with the Portuguese sacked in October. Wolves bounced back somewhat under Julen Lopetegui, and it was a stagnant so-so season. Wolves are in danger of becoming another Crystal Palace with their stagnance, and need to make a splash in 2023/24.
15th: Southampton (20th, +5 points)
“Prepare for a BATTLE, Southampton, but if you survive, many riches lay ahead. The theme of The Saints’ summer was clear: Youth. They brought in 2 Man City gems in Gavin Bazunu and Romeo Lavia, as well as 20-year olds Sekou Mara and Armel Bella-Kotchap. Perhaps the most influential arrival, however, was Joe Aribo from Rangers. He scored a beauty in pre-season and was key in Rangers’ run to the UEL final last season. These signings may not fit right in to the Premier League style right away, but it should be enough for survival and good improvement going into the upcoming seasons at St. Mary’s.”
They didn’t take my advice. They weren’t prepared. I think I should have seen the writing on the wall that maybe taking a 20-year-old from a League One starting GK to a Premier League starting GK wasn’t a good idea. I still don’t know what to make of Southampton, whether they can rebound straight up or whether they’ll become a Championship regular. Overall, a bad prediction on my part.
14th: Brighton (6th, +8 points)
“Despite the losses of Yves Bissouma and likely Marc Cuccurella with not much in replacement putting Brighton in the relegation battles of most, I think that this team will work together very nicely, as well as all the dumpster fire teams this season will get them comfortable mid-table and secure survival by Late March.”
Did I seriously justify putting them high? I don’t remember where everyone put Brighton in their predictions, but this was one of my worst predictions yet. This team has far exceeded everybody’s expectations and has qualified for the Europa League. The worst part is, they were still in the Champions League race in May! What an overachieving side.
13th: Nottingham Forest (16th, +3 points)
“They’ve made some really savvy signings in my opinion. Jesse Lingard, Taiwo Awoniyi, Nuno Da Costa, Orel Mangala, Neco Williams, Dean Henderson, and Omar Richards will all do well, thrusting this team to Brentford and Sheffield United heights. I’m very excited to see this historic team finally back in England’s top flight.”
I had too much confidence in Nottingham Forest. However, they were overachievers compared to most people’s predictions. If I’m honest, my predictions on great signings backfired. I didn’t yet know the sheer number of signings this team would make, but I’ll take it nonetheless.
12th: Brentford (9th, +3 points)
“The loss of Christian Eriksen will be felt in this side, but this Brentford team have really pulled some signings out of the bag here. Thomas Strakosha will be the most under-the-radar good signing of the season, Aaron Hickey looks really good, and Ben Mee will be their best CB this season. They’ll play a solid defensive style and finish mid table, no second-season-syndrome for them.”
A solid prediction is what comes to mind when I see this. I don’t think a lot of people had Brentford outside the mid-table. Ben Mee was a success for Brentford this season in my opinion, Aaron Hickey was solid, but Strakosha? Not really.
11th: Crystal Palace (11th, +0 points)
“AMAZING KITS by the way. However, the signings are unremarkable, just gap-fillers left by departures, and it will be an unremarkable, boring season as they finish just bottom half.”
Absolutely Spot on. Finally, my first 100% correct prediction, a boring and unremarkable season. Is Crystal Palace too complacent though? Definitely. They need to be aiming for Europe at this point, rather than mid-table and getting paychecks.
10th: Fulham (10th, +0 points)
““What? Is this guy ok?” is what you’ve probably said or thought about this prediction, but hear me out. They’ve got many good youngsters in Palhinha, Manor Solomon, and Kevin Mbabu as well as a good right now player in Bernd Leno. Who knows, he might follow the route of Emi Martinez. They are looking good.”
Fulham’s signings all came together this season. Especially players like Palhinha and Bernd Leno who have surpassed expectations. This was also one of my out there predictions. I am proud of this one, and hopefully Fulham don’t suffer from second season syndrome. The transfer window will probably decide that for us, though.
9th: Aston Villa (7th, +2 points)
“Speaking of looking good, Aston Villa are on a mission, it seems. They’ve made 3 statement signings in Philippe Coutinho, Diego Carlos, and Boubacar Kamara, with minimum departures, and pair that with an already good team, and you’ve got a team with a great shot at glory.”
This prediction was looking awful for most of the season, then Unai Emery inspired Villa to a masterclass of a 2023 to beat out Tottenham for the Conference League spot. However, Philippe Coutinho had an awful season, Diego Carlos was injured for most of the season, and Boubacar Kamara barely stood out. Villa still had a successful season, though.
8th: West Ham (14th, +6 points)
“Gianluca Scamacca. That’s the sentence. With no huge departures, West Ham have done nothing but improve this summer and Scamacca will be a huge part of it. He will be one of the signings of the season, score around 15 goals, and cement his place in the Italian National Team. Nathan Aguerd is a good signing as well, and Alphonse Areola, in his 3rd PL season, should be even better. They will just miss out on Conference League Football.”
No! No! Stop Talking! This prediction loses me most of my credibility I had built up over the last few predictions. But seriously, I really liked the look of Gianluca Scamacca, and I thought the step from Sassuolo to West Ham wasn’t that large, but a paltry 3 league goals later, it evidently is. West Ham also weren’t challenging for Europe, but fighting to stay up for most of the season. Somehow though, they’re in a European final, facing Fiorentina in the Conference League final.
7th: Manchester United (3rd, +4 points)
“They’re going nowhere this season, whether they have Ronaldo or not. It was a disappointing transfer window, and it seems hard to see a bright future ahead for United. Their signings will be disappointing, maybe a bounce back season for a few, but overall nothing to cheer about. 23-24 will see Conference League football for the Red Devils.”
In my defence, this looked like a good prediction after losses to Brighton and Brentford saw Manchester United rock bottom after 2 matches. Then Casemiro joined, Antony joined, and the team pulled it together to secure top 4. Credit to the Red Devils. This may be the foundations of the team that becomes the best Man Utd team since Sir Alex’s tenure.
6th: Tottenham Hotspur (8th, +2 points)
“Again, I know. Spurs are said to be the breakout team of the year, but I don’t see the hype. They just signed Richarlison, Yves Bissouma, and Ivan Perišić. With all the improvement above them, I can’t place them any higher than here.”
I called it. I mean not exactly, I didn’t see Spurs missing out on Europe entirely, but I didn’t see them being everything they were made out to be. Furthermore, I haven’t trusted Ivan Perišić since he was invisible at Bayern on loan in 2020 and didn’t see Richarlison and Yves Bissouma becoming great. But this collapse was bigger than anyone thought. As a wise man once said, it is the history of the Tottenham.
5th: Newcastle United (4th, +1 point)
“They were in the top 4 in 2nd half of the season form, and didn’t lose anyone big while brining in Nick Pope and Sven Botman. More signings are definitely on the way as well. The 1st half of the season they’ll be top 8, but as the big teams recoil from the World Cup, Newcastle will thrive. They’ll jump 3-4 spots and end up 5th, still a fair way from Champions League Football though.”
They weren’t as far from Champions League Football as I thought, it turns out. Nick Pope was a contender for the best GK of the season, and while it took a few weeks for him to catch form, Sven Botman was a stupendous defender for Newcastle. Combine that with amazing seasons from Bruno Guimaraes and Kieran Trippier, and you have a real good team. I can’t wait to see this team in the UCL next season. Unless they knock Barca out.
4th: Chelsea (12th, +8 points)
“Chelsea have improved somewhat, but it is just the greatness of the top 3 that push them this far down. The top 4 will be miles above the rest, and the season of Chelsea and 3rd place won’t be that interesting after March, just a rivalry for 3rd. It will be a good season for Chelsea nonetheless.”
Yikes. Yikes. Yikes. What the heck happened to Chelsea this season though? They spent a crazy 600 million euros on signings this season, by a long margin the most of any club in history, and dropped from 3rd to 12th. It’s the craziest and most unexplainable season of any Premier League club since Leicester won the league 7 years ago. I’ve done 2 posts on just Chelsea in 2023 alone, very rare for me, and more have to come soon. I am flabbergasted.
3rd: Arsenal (2nd, +1 point)
“Almost every signing will flourish. Gabriel Jesus will prove himself to be one of Brazil’s best. Pretty much everything will click for Mikel Arteta’s side this season as they win Europa League and finish 3rd in the Premier League. Gabriel Jesus will score 25, Bukayo Saka will get 15 assists, Aaron Ramsdale will get 10 clean sheets, and the defense will have a season like no other. They will be back.”
Well, it did click. I just didn’t think they’d be top of the league for over 200 days. They’ll be disappointed to finish 2nd, but this team is very young, and can provide a challenge to Man City for a long time if they can keep improving and keeping their core. A good prediction overall.
2nd: Man City (1st, +1 point)
“No, don’t click off the article, I know that you think I’m mad and will get this all wrong, but hear me out. Man City will be up by about 10 or so points near the end and have a deep UCL run. Because of that, they will rest players and drop points. It will be like a race where the person in front thinks they’ve already won so starts jogging toward the finish while the 2nd place person sees their chance and starts sprinting towards it and just pips the person in front at the last moment.”
I had to. I just had to. I had to be different when the team that had won 4 out of the last 5 Premier Leagues, nearly won the Champions League both of the last 2 years signs a monster who’s averaged nearly a goal per game for his whole career. All credit goes to City here, though. They kept Arsenal within an arm’s length, and just had the better mentality to pull through.
1st: Liverpool (5th, +5 points)
“While they have a slow start, Liverpool will start charging toward City in 2023. Mohamed Salah, having missed the World Cup, will do wonders, score 6-7 goals and win POTM as the Reds get 4 points back. They’ll slowly close the gap until Final Day where they just get by City. It will be a thrilling end to the season.”
I am so ashamed of this prediction. I thought I was so clever. But to my defense, Liverpool was an Ilkay Gundogan and Vinícius Júnior goal away from completing the quadruple the season before. Mind you, I’m still not happy and this was an awful prediction.
In total, I’ve ended up with 64 points, which when looking at Spencer FC’s points tallies, as he uses the same system I do, would be enough for fifth in the 7 times he’s done it. Not great, but for me, it is a success, as I predicted some real shocks this season. I’m back, and eager as ever to post even more over the next few months and over summer. I’m Jim James, until next time!