Your Guide to the chaos of the final Euro Qualifiers
Let’s start with the 0% and 100% qualified nations, as the only real chaos they can provide will be meaningless scorefests or spoilers for the teams whose fates are yet to be determined.
99-100% Qualified
Germany (Hosts)
Spain
Scotland
France
England
Turkey
Belgium
Austria
Portugal
Eliminated
Norway
Georgia
Cyprus
Gibraltar
North Macedonia*
Malta
Latvia
Faroe Islands
Sweden
Azerbaijan
Estonia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Finland
Northern Ireland
San Marino
Kosovo
Belarus
Andorra
Iceland
Bosnia
Liechtenstein
Fates to be sealed
Netherlands
Greece
Ukraine
Italy
Wales
Croatia
Armenia
Czech Republic
Poland
Moldova
Hungary
Serbia
Montenegro
Slovenia
Denmark
Kazakhstan
Romania
Sweden
Israel
Slovakia
Luxembourg
Group A
1: Spain, 15 pts (6 GP)
2: Scotland, 15 pts (6 GP)
3: Norway, 10 pts (7 GP)
4: Georgia, 7 pts (6 GP)
5: Cyprus, 0 pts (7 GP)
Games:
Georgia vs Scotland, Nov 16 (6 pm)
Cyprus vs Spain, Nov 16 (6 pm)
Spain vs Georgia, Nov 19 (8:45 pm)
Scotland vs Norway, Nov 19 (8:45 pm)
Chaos Rating: 2/10
There is potential for some big wins, but this group is already pretty much decided with Spain and Scotland progressing.
Game to Watch: Cyprus vs Spain
If you just want some eye candy, this is the game for you. For people who enjoy a good one-sided game once in a while. However, these are glorified friendlies for anyone interested in a game with meaning.
Group B
1: France, 18 pts (6 GP)
2: Netherlands, 12 pts (6 GP)
3: Greece, 12 pts (7 GP)
4: Ireland, 6 pts (7 GP)
5: Gibraltar, 0 pts (6 GP)
Games:
Netherlands vs Ireland, Nov 18 (8:45 pm)
France vs Gibraltar, Nov 18 (8:45 pm)
Gibraltar vs Netherlands, Nov 21 (8:45 pm)
Greece vs France, Nov 21 (8:45 pm)
Chaos Rating: 4/10
This group is, for all intents and purposes, decided, but Greece won’t want to think that. While a miracle is needed to see the 2004 winners qualify, just keep tabs on this group to see if it happens.
Game to Watch: Greece vs France
Greece will have to win this in order to qualify for the Euros, as it’s their only remaining game. Expect a Greek side that will put their life on the line vs a France squad that’s already qualified, and with which Didier Deschamps will now be experimenting to find their best XI for the tournament. Even if Greece best the World Cup runners-up though, the Netherlands have to be winless vs Ireland and Gibraltar.
Group C
1: England, 16 pts (6 GP)
2: Ukraine, 13 pts (7 GP)
3: Italy, 10 pts (6 GP)
4: North Macedonia, 7 pts (6 GP)
5: Malta, 0 pts (7 GP)
Games:
England vs Malta, Nov 17 (8:45 pm)
Italy vs North Macedonia, Nov 17 (8:45 pm)
North Macedonia vs England, Nov 20 (8:45 pm)
Ukraine vs Italy, Nov 20 (8:45 pm)
Chaos Rating: 9/10
Placing 2nd in the Chaos ranking, this group has become about as good as it can be. While England have qualified and Malta are out, North Macedonia could qualify if they beat England and Italy and Italy beat Ukraine, on a head-to-head tiebreaker vs Italy. However, the big one is the Ukraine vs Italy. Ukraine are 3 points ahead of the defending Euro winners, with one match left and having played one more match than Italy. If Italy win their game in hand, it’ll set up what is essentially a final between Italy and the Ukraine and whoever wins qualifies. However, Italy aren’t even guaranteed that final, as their game in hand is against North Macedonia, against whom they lost and failed to qualify for the World Cup, for a second straight tournament.
Games to Watch
Italy vs Ukraine
Game of the entire international break by far. Italy vs Ukraine, for a spot in the Euros. It is a massive matchup, and something we rarely ever see in international qualifiers. We nearly saw this last year in a potential Portugal-Italy game to qualify for the World Cup, but North Macedonia knocked Italy out before we could even see that, which they’ll hope to repeat here. The only fact which spoils this game a little bit is that even if Italy fail to make top 2, they’ll have a playoff game to qualify for the Euros because of their good Nations League performance, finishing 3rd back in June.
Group D
1: Turkey, 16 pts (7 GP)
2: Wales, 10 pts (6 GP)
3: Croatia, 10 pts (6 GP)
4: Armenia, 7 pts (6 GP)
5: Latvia, 3 pts (7 GP)
Games:
Armenia vs Wales, Nov 18 (3 pm)
Latvia vs Croatia, Nov 18 (6 pm)
Wales vs Turkey, Nov 21 (8:45 pm)
Croatia vs Armenia, Nov 21 (8:45 pm)
Chaos Rating: 8/10
Another big team, Croatia, is struggling to qualify. This is a lot like the last group, but a little less. Armenia is looking to make a last second leap over both Croatia and Wales, and they play both nations as their last 2 games. Wales will play 1st place Turkey, a great game, and every game left will be a headliner, featuring a team looking to qualify.
Game to watch: Wales vs Turkey
If Wales don’t win here, they are out, no questions asked. They’ll also play an already qualified Turkey team looking to experiment with their squad. Turkey will also play Armenia, which could also be a great game. I can’t wait.
Qualification Chance
Turkey: 99.9%
Wales: 30%
Croatia: 60%
Armenia: 10%
Latvia: 0%
Group E
1: Albania, 13 pts (6 GP)
2: Czech Republic, 11 pts (6 GP)
3: Poland, 10 pts (7 GP)
4: Moldova, 9 pts (6 GP)
5: Faroe Islands, 1 pt (7 GP)
Chaos Rating: 6/10
Group F
1: Belgium, 17 pts (7 GP)
2: Austria, 16 pts (7 GP)
3: Sweden, 7 pts (6 GP)
4: Azerbaijan, 4 pts (6 GP)
5: Estonia, 1 pt (6 GP)
Games:
Estonia vs Austria, Nov 16 (6 pm)
Azerbaijan vs Sweden, Nov 16 (6 pm)
Sweden vs Estonia, Nov 19 (6 pm)
Belgium vs Azerbaijan, Nov 19 (6 pm)
Chaos Rating: 2/10
Game to Watch: Belgium vs Azerbaijan
Group G
1: Hungary, 14 pts (6 GP)
2: Serbia, 13 pts (7 GP)
3: Montenegro, 8 pts (6 GP)
4: Lithuania, 6 pts (7 GP)
5: Bulgaria, 2 pts (6 GP)
Games:
Bulgaria vs Hungary, Nov 16 (6 pm)
Montenegro vs Lithuania, Nov 16 (8:45 pm)
Serbia vs Bulgaria, Nov 19 (3 pm)
Hungary vs Montenegro, Nov 19 (3 pm)
Chaos Rating: 6/10
Game to Watch: Hungary vs Montenegro
Group H
1: Slovenia, 19 pts (8 GP)
2: Denmark, 19 pts (8 GP)
3: Kazakhstan, 15 pts (8 GP)
4: Finland, 12 pts (8 GP)
5: Northern Ireland, 6 pts (8 GP)
6: San Marino, 0 pts (8 GP)
Games:
Kazakhstan vs San Marino, Nov 17 (4 pm)
Finland vs Northern Ireland, Nov 17 (6 pm)
Denmark vs Slovenia, Nov 17 (8:45 pm)
San Marino vs Finland, Nov 20 (8:45 pm)
Slovenia vs Kazakhstan, Nov 20 (8:45 pm)
Northern Ireland vs Denmark, Nov 20 (8:45 pm)
Chaos Rating: 4/10
Game to Watch: Denmark vs Slovenia
Group I
1: Romania, 16 pts (8 GP)
2: Switzerland, 15 pts (7 GP)
3: Israel, 11 pts (6 GP)
4: Kosovo, 7 pts (7 GP)
5: Belarus, 6 pts (6 GP)
6: Andorra, 2 pts (8 GP)
Games:
Kosovo vs Israel, Nov 12 (8:45 pm)
Israel vs Switzerland, Nov 15 (8:45 pm)
Belarus vs Andorra, Nov 18 (6 pm)
Israel vs Romania, Nov 18 (8:45 pm)
Switzerland vs Kosovo, Nov 18 (8:45 pm)
Kosovo vs Belarus, Nov 21 (8:45 pm)
Andorra vs Israel, Nov 21 (8:45 pm)
Romania vs Switzerland, Nov 21 (8:45 pm)
Chaos Rating: 10/10
Israel has FOUR GAMES this break, including one today. Switzerland has 3 games. Each of the top 3 plays each other once and no spot is confirmed. Keep a close eye on this group.
Game to watch: Romania vs Switzerland
Group J
1: Portugal, 24 pts (8 GP)
2: Slovakia, 16 pts (8 GP)
3: Luxembourg, 11 pts (8 GP)
4: Iceland, 10 pts (8 GP)
5: Bosnia, 9 pts (8 GP)
6: Liechtenstein, 0 pts (8 GP)
Games:
Liechtenstein vs Portugal, Nov 16 (8:45 pm)
Luxembourg vs Bosnia, Nov 16 (8:45 pm)
Slovakia vs Iceland, Nov 16 (8:45 pm)
Liechtenstein vs Luxembourg, Nov 19 (8:45 pm)
Bosnia vs Slovakia, Nov 19 (8:45 pm)
Portugal vs Iceland, Nov 19 (8:45 pm)
Chaos Rating: 3/10
Game to Watch: Liechtenstein vs Portugal
Thank you for reading this post. I couldn’t get it all done but I figured I’d still get it up for you to see. Hopefully I’ve cleared most of it up. I’m Jim James, until next time.