Palmeiras vs Santos – A tactical analysis and predicting exactly whats going to happen in the copa libertadores final
By Jim James
Hello, I am Jim James, and I consider myself as a sort of soccer/football nerd. Coming with that is wanting to find out stats. I am really looking forward to the Copa Libertadores final, and thus, I am going to find out the most likely outcome in this fixture. I will do a lot of number-crunching, so strap in for the football nerd’s dream.
Notes before we start
- Money amounts will be in CAD, if you don’t know what is is in your country, please use the money converting tool on google.
- Anything with * will mean there is a link, which will be posted at the bottom of the page unless noted otherwise
- ^Means the player isn’t at the club anymore
Palmeiras
Most valuable 10 players (As per January 28 2021)
- Gabriel Veron, $38.8m
- Gabriel Menino, $15.5m
- Patrick de Paula, $13.9m
- Gustavo Scarpa, $7.7m
- Gustavo Gomez, $6.9m
- Lucas Lima, $6.9m
- Rony, $6.2m
- Matias Vina, $6.2m
- Luiz Adriano, $5.4m
- Weverton, $5.4m
Source: Transfermarkt*
Recent Results
1-1 Draw vs Vasco De Gama
2-1 Loss vs Ceara
2-0 Loss vs Flamengo
4-0 Win vs Corinthians
1-1 Draw vs Gremio
Source: Google
Last 10 Games Lineup
GK:
Jailson 2/10
Weverton 8/10
RB:
Mayke 3/10
M.Rocha 3/10
G.Menino 1/10
CB:
B.Kuskevic 4/10
A.Empereur 6/10
G.Gomez 4/10
Luan 6/10
M.Rocha 2/10
Emerson 1/10
LB:
Renan 1/10
G.Scarpa 1/10
M.Vina 5/10
CDM:
F.Melo 1/10
P.De Paula 2/10
Emerson 3/10
Danilo 4/10
Ze Rafael 1/10
G.Menino 1/10
RM:
G.Menino 2/10
G.Veron 1/10
CM:
Ze Rafael 2/10
Danilo 2/10
R.Veiga 1/10
P.De Paula 1/10
LM:
M.Vina 1/10
L.Esteves 1/10
RW:
B.H.V.Lopes 3/10
G.Menino 2/10
Rony 1/10
G.Veron 1/10
CAM:
L.Lima 4/10
G.Scarpa 3/10
R.Veiga 4/10
Ze Rafael 2/10
Rony: 2 /10
B.H.V. Lopes 1/10
LW:
L.Esteves 1/10
G.Veron 1/10
Willian 3/10
B.H.V. Lopes 1/10
ST:
G.Silva 2/10
Luiz Adriano 6/10
Rony 1/10
Willian 1/10
Formations Used:
- 4-1-4-1, 3
- 4-2-3-1, 4
- 3-4-3, 3
Source: Google
Top rated players (at club)
- Gustavo Gomez, 80
- Luiz Adriano, 79
- Felipe Melo, 78
- Willian, 78
- Gustavo Scarpa, 78
- Marcos Rocha, 78
- Weverton, 78
- Rony, 77
- Ze Rafael, 77
Source: pesmaster.com**
Per Game rates (last 10)
Goals:
1.4 for per game, 0.9 against
Clean sheets
1 every 2 games
Red Cards
0.4 per game, 5 total in Libertadores
Source: Google
Stats (League)
Goalscorers
- Raphael Veiga, 11 goals 22 appearances (0.5 gpg)
- Luiz Adriano, 10 goals 21 appearances (0.47 gpg)
- Willian, 7 goals 28 appearances (0.25 gpg)
Assists
- Gabriel Menino, 5 assists 24 appearances (0.2 apg)
- Willian, 4 assists 28 appearances (0.14 apg)
- Luiz Adriano, 3 assists 21 appearances (0.14 apg)
Minutes
- Weverton, 2,340 minutes (39 hours(1.6 days))
- Luan, 1,830 minutes (30.5 hours(1.2 days))
- Gabriel Menino, 1,787 minutes (29.7 hours(1.2 days))
Source: fbref.com***
Injuries and Suspensions
Felipe Melo – Ankle – 2/28/21
Alanzinho – Leg – 4/1/21
Wesley – Meniscus – 2/7/21
Santos
Most valuable 10 players (As per January 29 2021)
- Kaio Jorge, $18.6m
- Yeferson Soteldo, $12.6m
- Lucas Verissimo^, 6.2m
- Felipe Jonatan, $4.6m
- Marinho, $3.8m
- Diego Pituca^, $3.7m
- Carlos Sanchez, $3.1m
- Raniel, $3.1m
- Arthur Gomes, $3.1m
- Alison, $2.9m
Source: Transfermarkt****
Recent Results
2-0 L vs Atletico Mineiro
3-4 L vs Goias
2-0 L vs Fortaleza
2-1 W vs Botafogo
3-0 W vs BOCA Juniors
Source: Google
Last 10 Games Lineup
GK:
J.V.M. Furtado 6/10
J.Paulo 3/10
Vladimir 1/10
RB:
Madson 4/10
Para 4/10
L.Braga 1/10
Pileggi 1/10
CB:
L.Solda 5/10
L.Felipe 3/10
L.Verissimo 4/10
L.Peres Petroni 5/10
Alex 3/10
LB:
W.Leonardo 1/10
F.Jonatan 8/10
J.Mota 1/10
CDM:
Guilherme 2/10
S.Roberto 3/10
D.Pituca 2/10
V.Bailero 1/10
Alison 3/10
CM:
L.Braga 2/10
S.Roberto 2/10
D.Pituca 3/10
Alison 2/10
RW:
Tailson 1/10
Marinho 6/10
L.Braga 2/10
Madson 1/10
CAM:
J.Mota 2/10
V.Balieiro 1/10
S.Roberto 2/10
L.Braga 1/10
Jobson 2/10
Y.Soteldo 1/10
D.Pituca 1/10
LW:
Arthur 3/10
Y.Soltero 4/10
L.Braga 3/10
ST:
M.Leonardo 2/10
K.Jorge 7/10
B.Marques 1/10
Formations Used:
4-1-4-1 – 3
4-3-3 – 3
4-2-3-1 – 4
Source: Google
Top rated players (at club)
- Yeferson Soltedo, 79
- Carlos Sanchez, 79
- Alison, 76
- Lucas Verissimo, 76
- Felipe Jonatan, 75
- João Paulo, 75
- Diego Pituca, 74
- Para, 74
- Luiz Felipe, 74
- Madson, 73
Source: pesmaster.com*****
Per Game rates (last 10)
Goals:
1.4 for per game, 1.2 against per game
Clean sheets
0.3 per game
Red Cards
0.1 per game, 7 total in libertadores
Source: Google
Stats (League)
Goalscorers
- Marinho, 16 goals 24 appearances (0.66 gpg)
- Yeferson Soteldo, 4 goals 20 appearances (0.2 gpg)
- Madson, 4 goals 23 appearances (0.17 gpg)
Assists
- Marinho, 6 assists 24 appearances (0.25 apg)
- Yeferson Soteldo, 4 assists 20 appearances (0.2 apg)
- Madson, 4 assists 20 appearances (0.17 apg)
Minutes
- Felipe Jonathan, 2,401 minutes (40 hours(1.66 days))
- Diego Pituca, 2,280 minutes (38 hours(1.58 days))
- Luan Peres Pitroni, 2,035 minutes (33.9 hours(1.41 days))
Source: fbref.com******
What is going to happen
Judging on the information that we have gathered, this is what I think is the most likely outcome
Lineup
Palmeiras
Formation
4-1-4-1
Team*******
Santos
Formation
4-2-3-1
Team********
Score
Palmeiras Santos
3 1
Luiz Adriano 23’,76’ Marinho 35’
R.Veiga 56’ D.Pituca (Red) 90’+ 2’
Willian (Red) 90’+2’
That is my prediction on what is going to happen tomorrow in Palmeiras vs Santos. I hope you enjoyed reading this article, and goodbye!
Links
*https://www.transfermarkt.com/se-palmeiras-sao-paulo/startseite/verein/1023/saison_id/2020
**https://www.pesmaster.com/sao-paulo-barra-funda-v/pes-2021/team/137/
***https://fbref.com/en/squads/abdce579/Palmeiras-Stats
****https://www.transfermarkt.com/fc-santos/startseite/verein/221
*****https://www.pesmaster.com/santos/pes-2021/team/1254/
******https://fbref.com/en/squads/712c528f/Santos-Stats
*******https://www.buildlineup.com/shared/601498402f2ebb0b68277970
********https://www.buildlineup.com/shared/601496ef2f2ebb0b6827796f