NBA – The 5 Teams Overachieving – and Underachieving – their Expectations
Hello all, welcome back to the blog – and a rare NBA post. We are a month into the NBA season, and I, perhaps refueled by my team’s resurgence, have taken an active role in finding out everything there is to know about the league this season. We have had some time now to find out what all these teams are all about, and we’ve been left scratching our head with a lot of these teams. Today, I will be going over 10 franchises, 5 who have done better than preseason expectations, and 5 who have done worse. Let’s get into it.
Overachievers: Toronto Raptors
My Preseason Prediction: 6th (East)
Current Ranking: 2nd
Projected Wins (Preseason): 40.7
Projected Wins (Now): 49.9
Current Record: 13-5
Coming into this season, another season of mediocrity and a draft pick in the bottom half of the lottery was expected. It had been this way for 4-5 seasons up to this point, with the team in a slow transitional era from the scraps of the 2019 championship team to a new era team, led by Scottie Barnes. The Rookie of the Year from the deep 2021 draft class had shown stagnation after his rookie season, and it was clear that he couldn’t lead a playoff team. Combine that with mediocre draft selections such as Ja’Kobe Walter and Gradey Dick, and you get a team seemingly without a direction.
And it seemed like our predictions would be right as the Raptors slumped to a 1-4 start to the regular season. However, as October ended, something changed within the Toronto Raptors. They started to put it together, and now, with Brandon Ingram co-starring with Scottie Barnes, and some great defensive contributions, the Raptors have gone 12-1 in their last 13 games. The team is incredibly deep, with Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett holding down the starters, and great bench guys like Sandro Mamukelashvili, Jamal Shead, Jamison Battle, and even rookie Colin Murray-Boyles quietly putting together a good start.
The Raptors, now second place in a wide-open East, are projected to get their first 50-win season since the bubble, and could end a 3 season-long run of losing (or .500) seasons.
Underachievers: Orlando Magic
My Preseason Prediction: 2nd (East)
Current Ranking: 7th
Projected Wins (Preseason): 49.9
Projected Wins (Now): 50.4
Current Record: 11-8
The Magic, unlike many teams we’ll get to later on, still have all the time to turn around their bad fortunes, and while their win projection has gone up slightly, it doesn’t tell the full story of how their season has gone. With the East more open than ever this year, the thought was that one of the teams to fill the gap would be the Magic, who had an ever-improving Paolo Banchero in his fourth season and who would be paired with Franz Wagner and new acquisition Desmond Bane, who the Magic went all in on (four firsts all-in on). It was thought that a big three like that would be enough to challenge for a weaker East, but the stars haven’t gelled so far.
A big season by star Paolo Banchero was expected, and I thought he’d end up winning MVP with a great breakout year propelling him into the NBA’s elite. However, the former number 1 pick picked up an injury midway through the month, and the Magic have actually done better without him (5-2) than with him (6-6).
Many questions remain for the Orlando Magic right now, but the overarching theme is that this will not be good enough.
Overachievers: Phoenix Suns
My Preseason Prediction: 14th (West)
Current Ranking: 6th
Projected Wins (Preseason): 34.7
Projected Wins (Now): 39.8
Current Record: 11-7
Coming into the season, the Phoenix Suns were in an impossible position. After going all in on a team with Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal, just to be swept by the Timberwolves in year one and miss the play-in in year two, it was over. Kevin Durant had been shopped to Houston and Bradley Beal was straight up waived and signed by the Clippers. They had just kept Devin Booker. The only piece they got back for either was Jalen Green, basically the same exact archetype of player as Booker.
Perhaps the worst part of their entire situation however – They have no control over their own first round pick until 2032 (yes, seven years from now). By then, Devin Booker will be 36 and Jalen Green will be 30 (and likely long gone from Phoenix). So what could Phoenix do? They had barely any assets to try and make a win now team, couldn’t pull any big free agents, it seemed all set for seven years of suffering.
However, the Suns have assembled a ragtag group of players, and it’s somehow working in a very good Western Conference. New acquisitions like Dillon Brooks, Grayson Allen, and Mark Williams have seen the Suns start winning games again, and give these hopeless Suns fans just a little bit to cling on to. It’s early, granted, but just maybe the Suns can make a push for the play-in.
Underachievers: Indiana Pacers
My Preseason Prediction: 10th (East)
Current Ranking: 14th
Projected Wins (Preseason): 45.9
Projected Wins (Now): 22.4
Current Record: 2-15
This is what I mean by that there are some teams who won’t be making a comeback. While projecting 46 wins for a team that just lost Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner seemed steep, we had no idea how overoptimistic that would turn out to be.
With a roster that more and more looks to be ‘Pascal Siakam and the Misfit Toys’, these guys just seem to have no spark at all. Siakam leads the team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals, and he isn’t even having his best career season. Besides him, we see a truly uninspired team featuring Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, Obi Toppin, and Aaron Nesmith. Good surrounding pieces when there’s already a defined core of stars, but evidently useless otherwise.
Combined with the fact that the Pacers were already treating this season as lost, and you get a team who’s tied with the historically bad Washington Wizards for the worst team in the league, and on pace for 10 wins all season. Truly a dreary time in Pacerville.
Overachievers: Detroit Pistons
My Preseason Prediction: 3rd (East)
Current Ranking: 1st
Projected Wins (Preseason): 42.6
Projected Wins (Now): 53.4
Current Record: 15-2
I was higher than most on this Detroit team coming into the season, and even I have been surprised by the sheer level of them. The Pistons, who went 14-68 just two years ago, the 15th worst season in NBA history, have already beat their win tally from that year, in the quickest turnaround I’ve ever seen.
Nearly their entire team has had great development. Cade Cunningham, their star No. 1 draft pick from 2021, has made the jump this year, and is now fourth in MVP rankings, the highest ranked East player. Then comes the 13th pick from 2022, Jalen Duren, traded by the Hornets for drafting Nick Smith Jr. the following year, and then traded by New York on the same night for a 2025 draft pick that became Nolan Traore (who’s played four games and averaged 1.8 points). The big man has now become the Pistons’ second in command, a great rim protector, and is the firm favourite to win the NBA’s Most Improved award.
However, the Pistons’ real success has come from a solid defence and great depth. They have nine double digit scorers, and a further three who’ve averaged eight or more a night. The Pistons are serious contenders from the East, on a 13-game win streak, and are on track for 72 wins (even though they probably won’t get that many).
Underachievers: Dallas Mavericks
My Preseason Predictions: 7th (West)
Current Ranking: 14th
Projected Wins (Preseason): 43.6
Projected Wins (Now): 32.7
Current Record: 5-14
Coming into the season, we didn’t really know what to make of these new-look Dallas Mavericks. It was a given that this season, as well as likely the next few after this, would continue to be underscored by the league-shaking Luka Doncic trade. However, after beating the odds and acquiring the incredibly hyped Cooper Flagg to pair alongside Anthony Davis, perhaps we could still see something out of Dallas. It turns out, we could not.
After firing GM Nico Harrison just weeks into the new season, then losing Anthony Davis to a calf injury, this team has struggled massively to make any impact. Not even in the time Davis has been out has Cooper Flagg, the leader of the offence, made any real impact. He hasn’t even led the rookie ladder, firmly behind No. 4 pick Kon Kneuppel. For someone who was so hyped coming out of college, similar to the hype for Andrew Wiggins and Ben Simmons, it’s been bad.
However, who can blame him? He’s been put in a win-now environment in his rookie year, given no time to adjust. However, with the Mavs not owning any of their own firsts after next year until 2031, they should be trying to boost their pick by tanking, not win now. With the GM change, it’s clear Anthony Davis is not long for Maverickworld – neither is Kyrie. After that, who do they have? Cooper Flagg and no firsts until the 18-year old’s fifth season. The Mavs are dangerously close to basketball purgatory, and it’s all thanks to *that* trade.
Overachievers: Miami Heat
My Preseason Predictions: 7th (East)
Current Ranking: 3rd
Projected Wins (Preseason): 40.3
Projected Wins (Now): 50.7
Current Record: 12-6
This is the most confusing one of the lot. How have the Heat got here? After the loss of frontman Jimmy Butler, it was expected the Heat would be rebuilding, or in and around the playoff spots. However, they too are benefitting off the openness of the East this year, and are starting to get comfortable in the top 4. Led by Stormin’ Norman Powell, who they fleeced the Clippers for, as well as Bam Adebayo, and a great bench.
Jaime Jaquez, the firm leader in the Sixth Man of the Year race, has averaged 16 a game across 18 games without a single start. He’s only part of an incredibly deep bench and a roster that has seen players like Kel’el Ware and Davion Mitchell take big jumps. The Heat are looking incredibly solid already, and, seemingly the franchise motto, are seeming really tough to beat come playoff time.
The kicker? Tyler Herro is making his return from injury to make this team EVEN BETTER. He scored 24 against Dallas in his first game back, and could boost the Heat into true East challengers.
Underachievers: LA Clippers
My Preseason Predictions: 6th (West)
Current Ranking: 13th
Projected Wins (Preseason): 49.7
Projected Wins (Now): 36.7
Current Record: 5-13
The Clippers absolutely HAD to make something of the Kawhi project this season – with the investigations going on, nothing is a given for them beyond this year. All they know is that this year, they have their core of Kawhi, Harden, Zubac, and Beal. Sadly for them, it’s no longer 2019 and the cold hard reality of NBA basketball in the present age has caught up to them.
Kawhi Leonard, true to type, has played just 7 of the Clippers 18 games this season due to a foot injury. Bradley Beal’s season ended after just six games and eight points per game due to hip surgery. John Collins, who they traded Norman Powell to get, has averaged just 11 points. Their only slightly good pieces are a 36-year old James Harden and a declining Ivica Zubac.
The Clippers have found out what this new NBA is all about – young talent. With 11 players having played eight or more seasons in the league, the Clippers just can’t compete with fast young teams, and a rebuild has to come soon, you’d think. Nope. The Clippers don’t control their own pick until 2030, and could lose more, don’t forget, from the ongoing investigation.
Overachievers: LA Lakers
My Preseason Predictions: 5th (West)
Current Ranking: 2nd
Projected Wins (Preseason): 45.8
Projected Wins (Now): 54.0
Current Record: 13-4
Time to go to the other side of LA. We knew that the Lakers would be one of the teams to watch for fireworks this year, good or bad. With the pairing of Lebron and Luka – two gamebreaking players – with a great surrounding cast including Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, and Austin Reaves. The Lakers have ended up surpassing all expectations – not as wildly as the other teams we’ve seen, but they’re still proving a challenger.
This Western Conference was always going to be a race for number two to the dominant OKC Thunder, and come playoff time, this team may be our best shot to see a different outcome than a Thunder repeat. Luka and Lebron each have great playoff experience, and the bench may be able to match up to OKC’s.
This team is being driven by a man possessed right now. Luka Doncic, fueled on pure hatred and the desire for revenge on the Mavs, is producting career numbers. He’s averaging nearly a 35-point trible double as well as two steals a night. Austin Reaves has averaged 28, and since his return, Lebron’s taken a backstage role, averaging 18 and dishing out 9 assists a night. This Lakers team is dangerous.
Underachievers: Cleveland Cavaliers
My Preseason Predictions: 1st (East)
Current Ranking: 4th
Projected Wins (Preseason): 56.5
Projected Wins (Now): 53.2
Current Record: 12-7
To finish us out we have the Cleveland Cavaliers. In an Eastern Conference where the Pacers and Celtics waved the white flag on the season before it even began, Cleveland was supposed to walk this conference. After 64 wins last year and no major losses, redemption on last year’s disappointing second round exit was the goal, but so far they’re fourth in the conference, and nowhere near looking like the dominant team from last year.
A couple years ago, this team looked like a dangerous quadruple threat with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen running it down low, with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland as major perimeter threats. However, as Mitchell’s time in Cleveland has wore on, the Cavs have seemed more and more like his old Utah teams – centered around him, with a couple good surrounding pieces. Mitchell is averaging 30 this season, but nobody else has even broke 20.
Like the Magic, the Cavs can still turn it around, but they have to lock in, and put their pieces together. They’ve been together long enough, I really don’t know how they haven’t by now, but it’s still early in the season.
Those are five over and underachievers so far in this NBA season. It’s important to keep in mind that nothing’s finalized, the season is still young, we’re less than 20 games in and there’s always time to turn around seasons, or for promising seasons to be derailed. I’ll be back soon for an update, but for now, I’m Jim James, until next time.