Over the last number of years the Toronto Raptors have had increasingly successful regular seasons only to fail – sometimes miserably – in the post season. In fact I suggest that the failures have been so significant that they have eclipsed the one really good run they had to the conference finals(2016) when they fell to LeBron James and a half dozen other guys from Cleveland in six games. LeBron brought the championship home for Cleveland that year, btw.
Fast forward to Dec 6, 2018:
-The Raptors are league darlings with a record of 21-5 and have already spent several weeks atop the NBA power rankings as assessed by most reputable sports outlets.
-Demar DeRozan – the one, true Raptor for life – has been traded for Kawhi Leonard. Danny Green – the ballast added to make the deal work financially- is playing like he thinks he is the main piece in the deal.
-A crack squad of researchers from ESPN discovered a dusty map to Canada, loaded up the snow machines and headed north of the border for a dedicated Raptor day. Truly a Rapture day for us attention starved, long suffering Canuck fans.
-And just days before the most successful coach in Raptor history was awarded the Coach of the Year award, the club fired him and hired an unproven assistant.
What does it all mean? Are they for real this time? Can I emotionally invest this year and not have my hopes dashed in the playoffs? Big questions which deserve big answers. Let’s break them down.
- Success is a journey and not a destination. If you haven’t enjoyed the success the Raptors have had this season to date, shame on you. Not many fans enjoy multiple 50+ win seasons nor do many fans get to enjoy their favourite team sitting atop the standings at any time during the season. Forget the playoffs for now, they are 5 months away.
- Previous performance is no guarantee of future success. There are too many uncontrollable factors in play at any time in any league to guarantee future success based on previous play. Even the Mighty Warriors are showing cracks this year. Who puts money on them to win if Steph and Draymond don’t get back to 100% health and stay there through the playoffs.
- The only thing that matters this year is winning in the play-offs AND making the finals. Ahhh, this is the question we really want answered isn’t it: are the Raptors going to get to the finals and if so, will they win?
WARNING: Legalese ahead
Let me start off by stating clearly that I have no internal NBA sources – living or dead – I have not played basketball professionally or at any time have I played basketball for money, nor have I, nor anyone I know, ever contacted or been contacted by any being from the future nor have I been to the future or have any prescience abilities or knowledge of any future events. What I am about to say is just my opinion and my opinion alone.
Here it is, be sure to tell your friends you read it here first:
Yes, the Toronto Raptors will make it to the NBA Finals – provided:
- No significant injury to any starter – particularly Kawhi and Kyle – and no groups of injuries to the rest, and;
- The Refs get most of the calls right – which some nights is a pretty big ask (right Denver?), and;
- The team continues to work hard to improve.
Okay, so I protected myself there a lot but as stated, I don’t have any actual window into the future and any one of those items could be the asteroid that kills the dinosaurs.
Will they win the Championship?
Alright, so they get to the finals. Now what? Asking if the Raptors will win the finals if they get there smells a lot like asking whether they could beat Golden State in a seven game series. (I’m not saying Golden State is going to win the west, but let’s just say that another blog post is in the works).
Can the Raptors beat the Warriors in a 7 game series?
To that question my magic 8 ball – again, just a metaphor for my opinion – says ‘unlikely at this time’. But, and I will readily admit that we all have one, but, with the right mix of circumstances I would say it is possible. Yes, that’s right – possible – but that possible comes with a big, long list of ‘provided’, too long to print here, save the trees and all that.
For those of you only interested in whether the Raptors will win the NBA championship in 2019, you may stop reading here. For those with more sophisticated tastes, craving a deeper understanding of the nuances of the league and your favourite players, well, you can stop too because I don’t have any of that either. I do, however have more regarding:
Are the Raptors for Real This Time?
“Why,’ the inquisitive among us ask, ‘Do you believe they will get to the finals after flaming out so many years in a row?’ I believe this year is different for several reasons.
- 1. Kawhi is the new Sheriff in town. And he’s a fine Sheriff. More skills than any previous Sheriff ever brought to town. (Nope, not going to spend a paragraph on that western themed analogy) While some well respected basketball analysts have recently argued Kawhi is a top 2 or 3 player in the league, few would argue Kawhi is among the top half dozen players along side of LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Yes, Kawhi is that good.
Kawhi receives such accolades not due to his offensive or defensive prowess, but rather for his prowess with both. Not only can he score at will, but physically, he has freakishly long arms with hands the size of laundry baskets which he uses to block shots and passes from his opponents. These premier skills alone are a bonanza for any team but it is Kawhi’s impact on the players around him, his ability to elevate their games, that separates him from so many other talented players in the NBA.
So together, Kawhi and the Kawhi effect on his teammates provide a significant improvement over last year.
- Kyle Lowry. Tough as nails and one of the smartest people playing the game today, Kyle knows how to make teams win basketball games. Even when his shot fails, Kyle impacts the outcome of the game in many ways not seen on the stat sheet. He is a leader, a facilitator and one of the few NBA players that prefers winning to scoring and personal stats. Kyle doesn’t promote ‘his brand’. He’s plays basketball. He prefers to let his play speak for him and if you don’t watch the Raptors and if you only see Kyle through the box scores and second hand reports, you miss the core of his skillset – his vision and his real time analysis of that data and blindingly execution, shooting or passing, giving the attack its shape. But it’s on the defensive end where Lowry really earns his Pitbull image. A leader in charges taken, his defensive intensity is relentless resulting in a complete player and the kind of player a team must have if it’s going to survive the playoffs and advance to the Finals. Kyle will always be underrated by many because much of his skill set is so nuanced most people don’t see it and it doesn’t show up on a stat line and I think he doesn’t care if they do.
- Pascal Siakam. Most improved player in the league candidate? Many people who should know are suggesting it. Eastern Conference Player of the Week? Yep. Really. Pascal has really kicked his game up a gear this season. Last year he sprinted the floor like Usain Bolt but was too raw and couldn’t translate the speed into points and useful stats. His passing was…interesting. This year, he’s reaching career point totals in game after game and is now distributing and stuffing the stat sheet. As he continues to improve, he makes the Raptors ever more dangerous. How Pascal improves between now and the end of the season will definitely have an impact on my crystal ball. He could be that good.
- Danny Green. Holy smokes. A little Masai magic? Pops must be asking himself where this Danny Green was last year. And the year before that and so on. I’ll bet Pops has asked himself more than one time in the last 45 days why they threw Danny in on the deal. But honestly, don’t sweat it Pops. Danny needed a change. Here in Toronto he has been reborn as a stone cold shooter making game winners and 3 pointers just when they are needed. But much more than that, as he was in San Antonio, he remains a tough defender, a vocal leader on the floor, a veteran presence, a great teammate and an active mentor for the younger players.
- Serge / Jonas. The 2 headed monster. Both having great years and both sharing the load, taking turns in the starting line-up according to opponent match up. Yes, that’s right. New coach Nic Nurse asked the 2 big men if they would share being in the starting lineup and they both agreed. To date, the experiment has been a great success with both putting up significantly better numbers than last year with less minutes.
- The bench – OG, Fred and Delon and the rest. So the Bench Mob 2.0 so far has been like upgrading from Windows 7 to Windows 8 but they have had their nights – unlike Windows 8. OG seems like the most improved although he has missed several games already this season. Fred’s shot has been missing for most of the early season and Delon doesn’t seem like last year’s confident Delon – particularly when the game is close, or playing from behind. However, in the game against Philly this week the bench looked strong, actually gaining significant ground against Philly’s starters during the first 5 minutes of the 4th quarter. Let’s hope someone downloaded that free upgrade to Windows 10.
So? So yes, this is a team that has had some significant upgrades over the team that won 59 games, most in the Eastern Conference last season. This is a team that has demonstrated for the first quarter of this season that it has the parts to be very competitive. Charles Barkley declared that the Raptor game vs the Warriors last week was the best game he’d watched all season. Your team is doing something right when you hear that. And Charles, if you’re reading this, we promise the Raptors will not let you down this year. We were right out there on that limb with you last year when LeBron broke it. Bully.
Now of course all of this comes with the usual e&oe, all things being equal and caveat emptor – buyer beware. Among the things that keep me up at night regarding this team are the following:
- No killer instinct. How many 20 point leads have they lost already this year? You don’t want to have this problem come play-off time if you know what I mean.
- Injuries. Enough said, could happen to anyone, any team.
- The Malaise from Early Season Success (MESS). Instead of working hard to improve their existing shortcomings, they start believing they are a team of destiny, fail to improve and well, fail in the play-offs.
- Crazy Kyle. I heart Kyle Lowry as described above and I believe he has slain the beast or at the very least has control over it, but I do harbour some small, hidden anxiety that it could get out and that could be bad for everything.
- Nick ‘I am the Man’ Nurse. Okay, I don’t know how he feels about himself, but he’s a new coach with the winningest team in the league. He’s taken a gamble with Val and Serge and it’s paying off really well so far. But he has to be careful not to take too much credit for what’s going on. He must remain humble. If he does not, he will alienate his team and the result will not be good. He also better continue to improve as a coach. Success isn’t a destination.
- Asteroids and climate change and Donald Trump. But they have nothing to do with the Raptors. It might beg the question, however, if the Raptors won the championship, would Trump invite them to the White House or would Trudeau invite them to Ottawa? Or both? And if they did, would they go?
You still haven’t answered, ‘How good are the Raptors?’
Everybody’s got a plan until they get punched in the face. This month they get to live Mike Tyson’s proverb through their schedule. Up until now the Raptors have had the 5th easiest schedule in the league. In December they face many tougher opponents including Boston, Philly again, Golden State, Milwaukee, Denver, Portland, Indiana and Miami. Four of these games are included in just one tough western conference trip.
The Raptors currently sit at 21-5. They have 12 games remaining this month with 3 of these games against truly bad teams. Given those are wins, if they go 5-4 in the remaining 9 games to finish 8-4 during this stretch, their record at the end of the month will be 29-9, likely good enough to remain at just about at the top of the league standings.
I think that’s a pretty good measuring stick to use in answering the question, ‘How good are these Raptors?’ If they fail to hit 29 wins by Dec 31st and instead end up 27-11 or 26-12, well, the remainder of the season might not be as magical as we’d thought it could be. On the other hand, if they end up 31-7 or 32-6, I think the rest of the season could be special. Of course, if they end up at 29-9 or 28-10, we’ll have to hope that Coach Nurse can mend them into a more cohesive group giving us longer stretches of solid play and fewer lost leads. That way my crystal ball can consider changing it’s forecast. Of course, it might not mean anything at all. As I said, my crystal ball isn’t actually magic.
How good are the Raptors? Are they for real this time? At the end of December, we’ll have much more information that we can use to answer that question. I’m anticipating a fun ride. I hope you join Jim and I.
Bob