Near the beginning of the month, Jim and I penned a post which talked a great deal about how good the Raptors really are this year and whether their blistering pace would continue. In that post, I forecast that the Raptors should be 29-9 at the end of the month if they continued to take care of business as they had up to this point in the season. And I committed to being back here at the end of December to discuss exactly what happened. With barely 8 hours left in 2018 and the last Raptor game for 2018 in the rearview mirror, there could be no better time to do so.
As you probably know by now, the Toronto Raptors did not finish the 29-9 record suggested and instead fell a little flat to 27-11. Still good for firstish/secondish in the league but falling back into the lead pack.
Games Bob’s PIck Actual Winner
Cleveland W W
Denver L L
Philly W W
Brooklyn W L
Milwaukee L L
Clippers W W
Golden State L W
Portland W L
Denver L L
Indiana W W
Cleveland W W
Philly L L
Miami W W
Orlando W L
Chicago W W
I did expect to win a game I had forecast to lose and lose a game I expected they’d win and I wasn’t disappointed early. Brooklyn was the loss I wasn’t expecting and Golden State was the win I wasn’t expecting so halfway through the month, things looked on track. However, they additionally lost 2 more games I had expected them to win in Portland and Orlando. And while Portland has some guns, it’s really a head scratcher why they lost to Orlando.
The biggest unexpected issue the Raptors dealt with in December was injuries. Jonas broke his hand in the Golden State game – or perhaps I should say Draymond Green broke Jonas’s hand – and he has been out since. Kyle has missed a handful of games due to thigh and back concerns, Fred, Pascal, Danny, Kawhi, Norm and Serge have all missed games in December due to various injuries. While it is true that all NBA teams deal with the injury bug from time to time, few teams logged as many significant injury minutes during the last 8 games of December as the Raptors. There is no doubt in my mind that these injuries resulted in the team falling short of the 29-9 I indicated that they should reach by the end of December particularly given I provided an injury proviso.
So I still have faith in the team, even with their recent shooting woes. With Lowry and Val back in the fold, they remain the team to beat in the East even if the Bucks have made a strong case with their 2 victories over the Raptors to date. Note that neither of those wins came against a fully manned Raptor squad.
I am concerned by this thigh/back issue of Kyle’s. He is not young anymore and he plays the game at a very intense level. Nagging back injuries have spelled disaster for more than one NBA career, including our favourite Canadian son, Steve Nash. This is a very different team without it’s engine. It’s a team that won’t go far into the playoffs without a healthy Kyle Lowry.
The status of his injury is unclear. The most recent information is that he is day to day but likely to miss the next 3 games. If you’re like me, that doesn’t make sense to you either and that’s the worry. Teams don’t usually rule out a player for the next 3 games when they are day to day. Why are we receiving mixed signals? We’ll have to wait and see. Hopefully, it’s a tempest in a teapot and Kyle is back soon and ready to rumble.
What about January you ask? Well, given a healthy respect to injury provisos and taking into consideration that Kyle may be out for the next 3 games, this is what I foresee:
Game Bad Month Good Month (Bob’s Crystal Ball)
Utah L W
San Antonio L L
Milwaukee L L
Indiana L L
Altanta W W
Brooklyn W W
Washington W W
Boston L W
Phoenix W W
Memphis L W
Sacramento W W
Indiana L L
Houston L W
Dallas L W
Milwaukee L L
It’s a daunting schedule this month with many good teams and a western road trip. I think 9-10 wins this month would be a good record, 12 or more victories a great month and less than 8 wins, a bit of a downer. Again, I repeat, these prognostications come along with an injury proviso to the starters and 6th and 7th men.
I hope you’ll join Jim and I as we share the ups and downs of what is one of the greatest Raptors seasons ever! Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone! All the best to you and yours for 2019!
Bob