The end of the second-ever league phase of the UEFA Champions League is upon us. Eighteen games at the same time. With that comes lots and lots of drama, goals, and table reshuffling that will have a massive impact on the rest of the tournament.
However, tracking 36 clubs is no small feat, one that many of us don’t want to or don’t have the time to do. That’ll be my job. Today, I’ll be taking you through all of the Champions League clubs and their situations going into this final round of fixtures. Let’s go.
The ‘Nothing to Play For’ Tier
These are the six teams whose fates have already been decided, whether it’s in top 8 or eliminated from the competition.
Arsenal
Position: 1st
Points: 21
Opponent: Kairat Almaty (H)
Predicted Finish: 1st
With seven wins from seven matches, Arsenal are in incredible shape. Top of the Champions League and Premier League standings, The back half of the season will be the biggest test yet of Mikel Arteta’s men, who have still remained trophiless since winning the FA Cup in 2020.
As for the final match against Kairat, who are also in this tier, I expect heavy rotation and a comfortable win, I’ll say 4-0. Surely Arsenal become the first team in league phase history to win all eight matches.
Bayern Munich
Position: 2nd
Points: 18
Opponent: PSV (A)
Predicted Finish: 2nd
Also qualified for the Round of 16 is Bayern Munich, who have looked incredible this season under Vincent Kompany. It’s hard to see any side besting the front three of Luis Diaz, Harry Kane, and Michael Olise, especially now that Jamal Musiala is back to further bolster the attack. Combine that with the elite youngster Lennart Karl, and this team will be incredibly difficult to beat.
Perhaps they slip up and leave the Netherlands with a 2-2 draw due to the rotation of Kane & Olise, but it’ll still be enough for the second position.
Eintracht Frankfurt
Position: 33rd
Points: 4
Opponent: Spurs (H)
Predicted Finish: 33rd
Frankfurt have been very disappointing in the Champions League so far. After a very promising 5-1 win against Galatasaray in the opening match of the competition, they would lose to Liverpool and Atleti by the same scoreline. Follow that up with disappointing defeats to Atalanta, Barcelona, and Qarabag, and Frankfurt are out.
Their last hope is serving as spoiler to Spurs in their push to secure Top 8 qualification, but I don’t think they’ll have enough. 3-2 defeat at home to close out their campaign.
Slavia Praha
Position: 34th
Points: 3
Opponent: Pafos (A)
Predicted Finish: 34th
Proving as maybe the only traditional ‘whipping boys’ of the Champions League this season, Slavia Praha were just disappointing. Getting three points through three draws instead of a win is pretty on point for this team.
With their last match against Pafos, I predict a sobering 2-0 defeat to close off what has been a horrendous group stage.
Villarreal
Position: 35th
Points: 1
Opponent: Leverkusen (A)
Predicted Finish: 35th
Perhaps the biggest surprise here, and in turn the biggest disappointment, Villarreal is expected to have a bigger impact in Europe. Certainly, with their last impressions on a big stage before this being a Europa League victory over Man Utd, and then nearly staging an epic comeback against Liverpool in the Champions League semifinals after beating Hansi Flick’s Bayern. However, their campaign has been atrocious.
The Yellow Submarines have seen disappointing defeats to Pafos, Copenhagen, Ajax, and absolutely folded in defeats to Spurs and Man City. It won’t be any different against Leverkusen. 2-0 defeat.
Kairat Almaty
Position: 36th
Points: 1
Opponent: Arsenal (A)
Predicted Finish: 36th
By far the smallest club in the Champions League in recent memory, Kairat have a combined squad value of less than half of Djed Spence. It is a club also situated in a city that’s nearly as far from Lisbon as Los Angeles is. All that in consideration, it was a miracle that this Kazakh club qualified for the competition at all.
Despite defeats to Sporting, Madrid, Inter, Brugge, Copenhagen, and Olympiacos, Kairat can still walk away with their heads held high, and with the millions of euros they earned from this adventure. 50 years from now, Kairat fans will be talking about the time their modest club had the eyes of Europe on them.
The ‘Desperation Mode’ Tier
This is the tier of teams who, while not out, have hit panic stations and need a big result in their final match to make the top 24.
Bodo/Glimt
Position: 28th
Points: 6
Opponent: Atlético (A)
Predicted Finish: 30th
If not for their incredible 3-1 win against Man City in the freezing cold of the Bodo Municipality last week, we’d be talking about Bodo/Glimt in the previous tier. However, their Champions League dream is still on the cards going into matchday eight. However, while beating a disorganised City at home with the fans and extreme conditions on your side is one thing, going to one of the most hostile stadiums in Europe to face an Atlético Madrid side that needs goal difference to get into the Top 8 is another.
If the Norwegian side can pull off another immense upset and make a push for the top 24, respect to them. However, I just don’t see it. 3-1 defeat to Simeone’s men.
Benfica
Position: 29th
Points: 6
Opponent: Real Madrid (H)
Predicted Finish: 31st
Another very, very disappointing team, Benfica has just crashed, burned, and died this season. Even the magic of the special one couldn’t save them, a proclamation of just how disjointed this team is.
The worst part is that they haven’t even gone out with a bang, but with a splutter. After an incredibly frustrating 3-2 defeat to Qarabag, where they threw away a 2-goal advantage, they lost 1-0 to Chelsea, 3-0 to Newcastle, and 1-0 to Leverkusen. It’s just been a horrendous campaign for Benfica. They’ll end it with a disappointing and forgettable 2-0 loss to Real Madrid.
Pafos
Position: 30th
Points: 6
Opponent: Slavia Praha (H)
Predicted Finish: 24th
Another team with a smaller combined market value than Djed Spence, Pafos’ qualification for the Champions League itself was another miracle. With a city population of 37,000, even less than the village of Villarreal, Pafos is one of the smallest cities to have a Champions League club.
Despite this, they have done very well, winning a game against Villarreal and drawing against Monaco, Olympiacos, and Kairat. I believe they’re favourites against Slavia Praha and will beat them on their way to a shock playoff qualification.
Union Saint-Gilloise
Position: 31st
Points: 6
Opponent: Atalanta (H)
Predicted Finish: 29th
About where they were predicted to be, USG had a very tough schedule. They couldn’t quite get anything out of games against Inter, Atleti, and Bayern, and were also beaten against Newcastle and Marseille. However, the Belgians are still a decent side, and I think they have a chance against Atalanta.
I believe we’ll see an entertaining 1-1 draw, but it still won’t be enough for Promise David’s side. 29th.
Ajax
Position: 32nd
Points: 6
Opponent: Olympiacos (H)
Predicted Finish: 32nd
The recent decline of Ajax has been sad to see. With five consecutive defeats to start the league phase, Ajax was bottom of the league, but now sit 32nd after two wins. Is it to be for the 2019 semifinalists? No. 2-1 loss to Olympiacos.
The ‘We’ll Try to Stay Here’ Tier
This is the tier of teams who are placed pretty well in the top 8, and just want to maintain their positions in the final game.
Real Madrid
Position: 3rd
Points: 15
Opponent: Benfica (A)
Predicted Finish: 3rd
Despite constant instability in Spain, Los Blancos have been a pretty sure bet in Europe so far. They sit third after a 6-1 win against Monaco, and will remain there after a 2-0 win against a struggling Benfica. Following that, it’ll be time to see if Mbappe can actually score against big teams.
Liverpool
Position: 4th
Points: 15
Opponent: Qarabag (H)
Predicted Finish: 4th
Similarly to Madrid, Liverpool have done pretty well in Europe despite their inconsistency in the league. Arne Slot’s job is on pins and needles, but a home match against Qarabag should be pretty simple for the Reds. 4-2 victory, and they remain fourth.
Spurs
Position: 5th
Points: 14
Opponent: Frankfurt (A)
Predicted Finish: 5th
If anyone will slip, it’s the spursy Spurs. They have a simple task against an eliminated Frankfurt, but still may do what Spurs are famous for and slip up, putting their Top 8 hopes in jeopardy. However, I don’t envision that, and I see Spurs keeping fifth spot with a 3-2 win.
The ‘Top 24 Dogfight’ Tier
These are the teams fighting for a top 24 spot, and will be desperate to keep their European season alive.
Olympique Marseille
Position: 19th
Points: 9
Opponent: Club Brugge (A)
Predicted Finish: 19th
A very inconsistent Champions League team, it’s very much a toss up to see how Marseille will fare against Club Brugge, on the opposite end of this fight. I see a draw in the works, which should be more than enough for Marseille to qualify.
Bayer Leverkusen
Position: 20th
Points: 9
Opponent: Villarreal (H)
Predicted Finish: 17th
Bayer Leverkusen are still a relatively unknown package this season. With a completely new core after the dismantling of their invincibles, they’ll place around mid-table after a victory against Villarreal. However, the playoffs will be their true proving grounds.
Monaco
Position: 21st
Points: 9
Opponent: Juventus (H)
Predicted Finish: 26th
The Champions League’s most luxurious club fall just short in my prediction. However, Juventus aren’t unbeatable, and Monaco have a good chance here. If their defence decides to finally show up after a disasterclass against Real Madrid, they may just have enough to keep themselves in top 24.
PSV
Position: 22nd
Points: 8
Opponent: Bayern (A)
Predicted Finish: 22nd
Despite the level of their opponents, PSV is a team who are capable of massive upsets, pummeling Napoli 6-2 and Liverpool 4-1. They will be tricky to beat come the knockouts if they qualify, and definitely have a shot of getting something out of Bayern.
Athletic Club Bilbao
Position: 23rd
Points: 8
Opponent: Sporting CP (H)
Predicted Finish: 23rd
Euskadi have been doing decently in Europe this season, recovering after losing their first two matches. Against a tough Sporting side, I predict a draw, which they’ll need to stay in their precarious position.
Olympiacos
Position: 24th
Points: 8
Opponent: Ajax (A)
Predicted Finish: 18th
Favourites against a struggling Ajax, Olympiacos are one of the vanilla Champions League teams making up the pack most years. They should end up one of the best-placed teams out of this pack.
Napoli
Position: 25th
Points: 8
Opponent: Chelsea (H)
Predicted Finish: 25th
The most high-profile team here, Napoli have an incredibly difficult task getting by Chelsea, and I predict that while they’ll end up with a 1-1 draw, it won’t be enough to make the top 24. Antonio Conte just isn’t a great European manager.
Copenhagen
Position: 26th
Points: 8
Opponent: Barcelona (A)
Predicted Finish: 28th
Despite the undeniable fight of this Copenhagen side, they’re going to be travelling to the Camp Nou to face a Barcelona team that needs goal difference. Eight points is still a great amount for this plucky team.
Club Brugge
Position: 27th
Points: 7
Opponent: Marseille (H)
Predicted Finish: 27th
The only team with 7 points here, Brugge have one foot out of the Champions League, but a miracle result against Marseille may be just enough to do it. Brugge is a very good team in this competition historically, and a league phase exit would be very disappointing.
The “Wherever we wanna be it’s not here” Tier
These are the teams in limbo. They’ve been good enough to not have to worry about falling out of the Top 24, but too poor to think about the Top 8. Their reward? A potential Round of 16 matchup against Arsenal or Bayern, explaining the name.
Juventus
Position: 15th
Points: 12
Opponent: Monaco (A)
Predicted Finish: 9th
A match against Monaco could trip up the Old Lady, but I predict a comfortable win that nearly sends them to the Top 8. Juve have finally been regaining form, and this could be a big chance for them to cement themselves as a team back on the rise.
Borussia Dortmund
Position: 16th
Points: 11
Opponent: Inter (H)
Predicted Finish: 16th
The highest ranked team not mathematically qualified for the top 24, Dortmund shouldn’t have anything to worry about. They face an Inter side who have lost their last three, and a draw should be good for them.
Galatasaray
Position: 17th
Points: 10
Opponent: Man City (A)
Predicted Finish: 20th
The Turkish side has upset potential here, but I foresee a Man City win here. Even if they do lose, it should still be enough to comfortably make the playoffs.
Qarabag
Position: 18th
Points: 10
Opponent: Liverpool (A)
Predicted Finish: 21st
The surprise package of this league phase, Qarabag aren’t a team to be underestimated. The minnows from Azerbaijan have beaten Benfica, Copenhagen, and Frankfurt and battled out a draw against Chelsea. Even though I predict a loss here, they should be safe even with a loss.
The “Top 8 Battlefield” Tier
The most intriguing storyline of the final day, there are no fewer than eight teams tied on 13 points, from 6th position to 13th. Let’s go over the teams who will be in a full on dogfight to qualify for the round of 16.
PSG
Position: 6th
Points: 13
Opponent: Newcastle (H)
Predicted Finish: 10th
Despite looking like they’d comfortably qualify, a draw to Bilbao followed by a loss to Sporting has thrown PSG’s campaign in the mixer. They have to play a similarly-motivated Newcastle side, and I predict a shock draw that puts the Parisiens in the playoff.
Newcastle
Position: 7th
Points: 13
Opponent: PSG (A)
Predicted Finish: 11th
The team with the toughest match of any trying to qualify, Newcastle will need a famous night at the Parc to qualify here. They may at least also act spoiler to their opponents and salvage some position with a draw, but that is to be determined.
Chelsea
Position: 8th
Points: 13
Opponent: Napoli (A)
Predicted Finish: 12th
With a ridiculously streaky group stage, I just see Chelsea out-mentalitied by a Napoli side desperate for survival. They’ll slip to 12th, and will have to be feeling a bit disappointed.
Barcelona
Position: 9th
Points: 13
Opponent: Copenhagen (H)
Predicted Finish: 6th
After a great comeback from after the Chelsea defeat, I predict Barcelona end the league phase in 6th after a big win against Copenhagen. They need goal difference, and that may just be the difference between a quarterfinal and a semifinal later down the line.
Sporting CP
Position: 10th
Points: 13
Opponent: Athletic Club (A)
Predicted Finish: 13th
After a great win against PSG, Sporting are just happy to be involved in this battle. Against a hot-and-cold Bilbao side, luck could be on their side, but I predict a frustrating loss. All in all though, 13th is great for Sporting, much better than they could have hoped.
Manchester City
Position: 11th
Points: 13
Opponent: Galatasaray
Predicted Finish: 7th
Despite the slip up against Bodo/Glimt, I see this City side returning to form against Galatasaray, and with a few results going their way, qualify in 7th spot. City are still a very tough side, and despite recent results, are one of the favourites.
Atlético Madrid
Position: 12th
Points: 13
Opponent: Bodo/Glimt (H)
Predicted Finish: 8th
Surely they must beat Bodo/Glimt, right? Again, with results going their way, Atleti qualify for the Top 8. After last year’s disaster against Real Madrid, Los Colchoneros will be eager to make that up. Only time will tell, however.
Atalanta
Position: 13th
Points: 13
Opponent: Union SG (A)
Predicted Finish: 14th
Despite holding a Top 8 position going into the last match, Atalanta are a long shot to make it into the Top 8. Even if they beat Union, they’ll need quite a few results going their way. It’ll be tough for the Bergamo side, but maybe there’s just a shot.
Inter
Position: 14th
Points: 12
Opponent: Dortmund (A)
Predicted Finish: 15th
The only team in this tier with 12 points, Inter have had a humbling fall, losing three straight after winning their first four matches. Their usually solid defence has been leaky, and I see a draw to Dortmund, a disappointing end to their league phase.
Results:
Playoff Round
Inter/Dortmund vs Leverkusen/Olympiacos
Winners face Arsenal, Bayern
Sporting/Atalanta vs Marseille/Galatasaray
Winners face Real Madrid, Liverpool
Newcastle/Chelsea vs Qarabag/PSV
Winners face Spurs, Barcelona
Juventus/PSG vs Bilbao/Pafos
Winners face Man City, Atlético
While these are my predictions, I can’t wait to see how this final day plays out, what surprises we see, what big matchups could be on the cards, I’m absolutely here for it.