2 weeks ago, Arsenal were on top of the world. They were 6 points up on Man City (with Man City having 1 game in hand), with 9 games to go. Now, after 3 consecutive draws and 6 dropped points, Man City can now overtake Arsenal with their games in hand, even with a draw in their match against each other. It’s not looking good for Arsenal, as if Man City win the rest of their league games, Arsenal are powerless to stop them. Let’s break down Arsenal’s schedule to see if they’re still favourites to win the Premier League.
Let’s start with the bookmaker’s odds. I’m not a betting man, but it seems like the best place to start. FiveThirtyEight has Arsenal now at only a 25% chance of winning the Premier League, as opposed to 56% at the start of the month. Certainly the odds don’t think Arsenal can recover from this, but let’s judge for ourselves. Arsenal have 6 matches to go before the end of the season, in this order:
Man City (Away)
Chelsea (Home)
Newcastle (Away)
Brighton (Home)
Nott. Forest (Away)
Wolves (Home)
This is a difficult schedule for Arsenal, especially after two draws to relegation battlers, including a home match vs the bottom of the league team. Chelsea are always tough for Arsenal, Newcastle have had the best defence in the league, and Brighton always overachieve against good teams. By the time they play Forest and Wolves, the title charge may already be over.
Whatever happens, the title race will be completely dependent on Man City-Arsenal next week. It is a true title decider, and Arsenal need desperately to win. If they don’t, they have messed up likely their last chance at the title. After being on top for 31 match weeks and prioritizing the league over everything else, Arsenal need this title. Man City are still on course for the treble (They’re currently playing Sheffield United in the FA Cup as I write this), and could win England’s first treble since 1999.
Wednesday’s match will be Arsenal and City’s third meeting of the season, and City have won both, beating the Gunners 1-0 in the FA Cup and 3-1 in the league at the Emirates. Because of this, I’m not favouring Arsenal in the match on Wednesday. I think City will not just beat Arsenal, but will school them. I’m saying 3-0 with Man City dominant the whole game. Because this game won’t take any of Man City’s games in hand, Man City will be able to go 4 points clear with 5 games left. A win for Man City seals the title pretty much, or Arsenal slipping up any more before the end of the season.
In conclusion, no. I think Arsenal have blown it. 3 draws in a row, two of which to opponents they really should have beat, I think this team is too young and without the right resolve to fight for a title. There are no beacons of experience in the team, down to Mikel Arteta, who’s still in his first head managerial role. I hope they prove me wrong, I’m tired of seeing Man City win it every year. I’m Jim James, until next time.