Predicting the Winner of the Champions League 2021-22 Using Numbers
By Jim James
Hello all, and welcome back to the blog. Apologies for not posting yesterday – since it was the Barcelona derby & Super Bowl day, we took it off. I hope you forgive us. Happy Valentine’s Day! Bob and I wish everyone out there a happy and love-filled February 14th! Let’s get down to business.
One of my favorite youtubers to watch when I’m bored has a concept like this – but for the NBA. I’ve always wanted to do a “Using Numbers to” post, and today’s the day!
Today we’re going to be using numbers to predict the winner of the UEFA Champions League, as the competition returns tomorrow. We’ll be looking at the 16 remaining teams, and coming to a conclusion based on various metrics we’ll be using which will be revealed later in the post. I’ve divided these metrics into two separate piles.
The On Pitch Metrics
And
The On Paper Metrics
The On Pitch Metrics will be used to judge a team’s performance using the stats from their games this season, and the On Paper Metrics will be used to make sure a likely team wins it. No, I’m not rigging it, maybe that was a bad way of putting it. It will be used for a realism filter and to make sure we don’t get a RB Salzburg vs Ajax final or something crazy about that.
Standings Points (StPts) will be awarded to the teams who do the best in each metric, and all StPts will be tallied up at the end of this post, with the team who gets the most after the 10 metrics have been tallied wins, and is my pick to win the whole thing in June. I’ll also show HOW they win it, and how the entire knockout stage will go. With all that cleared and out of the way, let’s begin!
Metric 1: League Record
On Pitch Metric
We’ll be tallying the points total of all teams in their leagues, with a multiplier for each of the leagues based on how highly it’s ranked in the UEFA League Coefficient. For Example, Ligue 1 has a x1.8 multiplier, so a team with 50 points would end up with 90 “attributes” counting for this list
16th: RB Salzburg – 55.2 attributes, +0 StPts
Austrian Bundesliga Multiplier: x1.15
League Points: 48 (1st)
15th: LOSC Lille – 63 Attributes, +0 StPts
Ligue 1 Multiplier: x1.8
League Points: 35 (10th)
14th: Villarreal – 68.4 Attributes, +3 StPts
La Liga Multiplier: x1.9
League Points: 36 (7th)
13th: Ajax – 70.3 Attributes, +4 StPts
Eriedivisie Multiplier: x1.3
League Points: 54 (1st)
12th: Atlético Madrid – 74.1 Attributes, +5 StPts
La Liga Multiplier: x1.9
League Points: 39 (5th)
11th: Benfica – 75 Attributes, +6 StPts
Primera Liga Multiplier: x1.5
League Points: 50 (3rd)
10th: Man Utd – 76 Attributes, +7 StPts
Premier League Multiplier: x1.9
League Points: 40 (5th)
9th: Sporting – 81 Attributes, +8 StPts
Primera Liga Multiplier: x1.5
League Points: 54 (2nd)
8th: Juventus – 85.1 Attributes, +9 StPts
Serie A Multiplier: x1.85
League Points: 46 (4th)
7th: Chelsea – 89.3 Attributes, +10 StPts
Premier League Multiplier: x1.9
League Points: 47 (3rd)
6th: Inter – 99.9 Attributes, +11 StPts
Serie A Multiplier: x1.85
League Points: 54 (2nd)
5th: Liverpool – 102.6 Attributes, +12 StPts
Premier League Multiplier: x1.9
League Points: 54 (2nd)
4th: Real Madrid – 102.6 Attributes, +13 StPts
La Liga Multiplier: x1.9
League Points: 54 (1st)
(Wins tiebreaker with Liverpool due to League Position)
3rd: Bayern – 104 Attributes, +15 StPts
Bundesliga Multiplier: x2 (Due to less games)
League Points: 52 (1st)
2nd: PSG – 106.2 Attributes, +20 StPts
Ligue 1 Multiplier: x1.8
League Points: 59 (1st)
1st: Man City – 119.7 Attributes, +25 StPts
Premier League Multiplier: x1.9
League Points: 63 (1st)
Man City run away with the first Metric, however the day is young, we continue.
Metric 2: xG Per Game
On Pitch Metric
We’ll be measuring this 2nd metric by the team’s xG per game. Pretty self-explanatory, let’s go!
16th: Lille – 1.48 xG
15th: Juventus – 1.59 xG
14th: Villarreal – 1.62 xG
13th: Atlético – 1.64 xG
T11th: RB Salzburg 1.7 xG
T11th: Man Utd – 1.7 xG
10th: Sporting – 1.8 xG
9th: Chelsea – 1.85 xG
8th: PSG – 1.98 xG
7th: Benfica – 2.01 xG
6th: Inter – 2.2 xG
5th: Real Madrid – 2.29 xG
4th: Man City – 2.49 xG
3rd: Liverpool – 2.5 xG
2nd: Bayern – 2.6 xG
1st: Ajax – 2.63 xG
That was very unexpected, Ajax win the xG category, we’ll see the return of xG soon, but for now, we go to Metric 3!
Metric 3: UEFA Club Coefficient
On Paper Metric
We’ll be ranking these teams based on their position on the FIFA Club Coefficient, again, simple, let’s do it!
16th: Lille – 52nd
15th: Sporting – 27th
14th: Benfica – 26th
13th: Inter – 24th
12th: RB Salzburg – 21st
11th: Villarreal – 20th
10th: Ajax – 14th
9th: Atlético – 10th
8th: Man Utd – 9th
7th: Juventus – 8th
6th: PSG – 6th
5th: Real Madrid – 5th
4th: Chelsea – 4th
3rd: Liverpool – 3rd
2nd: Man City – 2nd
1st: Bayern – 1st
Bayern wins it here – not a surprise. We move on to the next metric.
Metric 4: FIFA 22 Rating
On Paper Metric
In this metric we’re ranking the teams based on the combined rating of their best 15 players on the latest edition of FIFA 22. Not the average rating but the combined rating. We begin.
16th: RB Salzburg – 1101 Rating
15th: Ajax – 1123 Rating
14th: Lille – 1156 Rating
13th: Inter – 1164 Rating
12th: Benfica – 1187 Rating
11th: Sporting – 1189 Rating
10th: Villarreal – 1213 Rating
9th: Juventus – 1241 Rating
8th: Man Utd – 1256 Rating
7th: Atlético – 1262 Rating
6th: Chelsea – 1263 Rating
5th: Real Madrid – 1277 Rating
4th: Bayern – 1278 Rating
3rd: Liverpool – 1286 Rating
2nd: Man City – 1291 Rating
1st: PSG – 1294 Rating
PSG Wins it, and with a front 3 rated 93, 91, and 91, it comes as no surprise to FIFA players.
Metric 5: Top Goalscorer in Champions League
On Pitch Metric
This 5th Metric measures and ranks the teams by how many goals their top goalscorer in this year’s Champions League has. Tiebreakers will be decided on how many goals the teams scored in the group stage, and if both are level, the teams stay tied.
T15: Benfica – 3 Goals (Darwin Nunez)
T15: Lille – 3 Goals (Jonathan David)
T13: RB Salzburg – 3 Goals (Noah Okafor)
T13: Inter – 3 Goals (Edin Dzeko)
12th: Juventus – 3 Goals (Paulo Dybala)
11th: Chelsea – 3 Goals (Timo Wener)
10th: Atlético – 4 Goals (Antoine Griezmann)
9th: Villarreal – 4 Goals (Arnaut Danjuma)
8th: Sporting – 4 Goals (Pedro Goncalves)
7th: PSG – 5 Goals (Lionel Messi)
6th: Real Madrid – 5 Goals (Karim Benzema)
5th: Man City – 5 Goals (Riyad Mahrez)
4th: Man Utd – 6 Goals (Cristiano Ronaldo)
3rd: Liverpool – 7 Goals (Mohamed Salah)
2nd: Bayern – 9 Goals (Robert Lewandowski)
1st: Ajax – 10 Goals (Sebastien Haller)
Although odd, people who have been following the Champions League should know about Sebastien Haller’s brilliance in the competition this season. It’s just amazing how he’s turned his career around. Anyway, we move on to the 2nd half of the metrics.
Metric 6: Average Shots Per Game
On Pitch Metric
This metric will be used to decipher the amount of shots the team takes per game on average. Simple dimple, let’s go!
16th: Lille – 11.5
15th: RB Salzburg – 11.8
14th: Villarreal – 12.3
13th: Atlético – 13.1
12th: PSG – 13.5
11th: Man Utd – 14.1
10th: Juventus – 14.5
9th: Chelsea – 14.8
8th: Sporting – 14.9
7th: Benfica – 15.2
6th: Inter – 16.7
5th: Real Madrid – 17.3
4th: Man City – 18.7
3rd: Liverpool – 18.9
2nd: Ajax – 19.7
1st: Bayern – 20.6
Bayern wins quite firmly and no, you haven’t just fallen into a parallel universe where Ajax is on par with the likes of Liverpool, Man City, and PSG, they’re just doing really well on most of the on-pitch stats.
Metric 7: Average Goals Per Game
On Pitch Metric
As we are now firmly into the 2nd half of the metrics, we go to goals per game, which is essentially shots per game but instead it’s for goals. Onwards.
16th: Lille – 1.36
15th: Man Utd – 1.54
14th: Juventus – 1.58
13th: Atlético – 1.71
12th: Villarreal – 1.73
11th: Chelsea – 1.97
10th: Real Madrid – 2.05
9th: PSG – 2.11
8th: Inter – 2.12
7th: Sporting – 2.14
6th: Benfica – 2.21
5th: RB Salzburg – 2.5
4th: Liverpool – 2.56
3rd: Man City – 2.58
2nd: Ajax – 3.37
1st: Bayern – 3.45
Bayern wins yet another category, Ajax doing well again, onto the 8th metric out of 11!
Metric 8: xGA
I told you that xG would return, and here we are. We’ve done a lot of attacking stats, now time for a defensive one, and our last On Pitch Metric. Let’s do it!
16th: Man Utd – 1.56 xGA
15th: Lille – 1.47 xGA
14th: PSG – 1.31 xGA
T12th: Villarreal – 1.27 xGA
T12th: Real Madrid – 1.27 xGA
11th: Juventus – 1.25 xGA
10th: Inter – 1.22 xGA
9th: Bayern – 1.21 xGA
8th: Chelsea – 1.2 xGA
7th: RB Salzburg – 1.1 xGA
6th: Benfica – 1.03 xGA
5th: Liverpool – 1.02 xGA
T3rd: Atlético – 1.01 xGA
T3rd: Sporting – 1.01 xGA
2nd: Ajax – 0.86 xGA
1st: Man City – 0.83 xGA
Man City’s elite defense comes out on top here, with Ajax continuing to impress. I can smell conclusion, let’s go to the 3rd last metric
Metric 9: Depth
On Paper Metric
There is literally ZERO statistics that focus on just depth, but since depth is pretty important to win the competition, considering you have to go through 13 UCL games to win, so this is an opinion-based metric. I’m rating these teams on their depth out of 10 based on the standard to win it. Let’s go.
16th: RB Salzburg – 1.5/10
15th: Lille – 2/10
14th: Benfica – 2.5/10
13th: Sporting – 3/10
12th: Villarreal – 3.5/10
11th: Man Utd – 4/10
10th: Ajax – 5/10
9th: Juventus – 5.5/10
T7th: Atlético – 6/10
T7th: Inter – 6/10
6th: Chelsea – 6.5/10
5th: PSG – 7/10
4th: Real Madrid – 7.5/10
3rd: Bayern – 8.5/10
2nd: Man City – 9/10
1st: Liverpool – 10/10
Liverpool wins it on depth, due to players like Diogo Jota, Luis Diaz, Naby Keita, and others.
Metric 10: Transfermarkt Value
When debating what Metrics to evaluate, I was debating whether to do this or the FIFA one, I decided to do both. So funny story, I guess. We evaluate the teams based on their total team value on transfermarkt. Let’s begin.
16th: RB Salzburg – 203.55m
15th: Lille – 239.3m
14th: Sporting – 251.7m
13th: Benfica – 270.5m
12th: Ajax – 364.3m
11th: Villarreal – 367m
10th: Inter – 550.9m
9th: Juventus – 566.4m
8th: Atlético – 646.5m
7th: Real Madrid – 780m
6th: Man Utd – 790.25m
5th: Bayern – 815.75m
4th: Chelsea – 883m
3rd: Liverpool – 889m
2nd – PSG – 909.55m
1st – Man City – 991.3m
Man City winning it and the Oil Clubs 1st and 2nd, no big surprise. To the Last Metric!
Metric 11: Odds
Metric 11 is the odds from FiveThirtyEight on the teams winning it. It will be sorted by probability. Note the under 1% teams’ percentages may not be accurate but I did the best I could with my material.
16th: Lille – 0.4% Chance
15th: Sporting – 0.5% Chance
14th: Benfica – 0.6% Chance
13th: RB Salzburg – 0.7% Chance
12th: Juventus – 0.8% Chance
11th: Man Utd – 0.9% Chance
10th: Atlético – 2% Chance
9th: Inter – 2.5% Chance
8th: Villarreal – 3% Chance
7th: PSG – 4% Chance
6th: Real Madrid – 4.5% Chance
5th: Chelsea – 10% Chance
4th: Ajax – 13% Chance
3rd: Liverpool – 15% Chance
2nd: Bayern – 20% Chance
1st: Man City – 25% Chance
Man City win it by a long shot here. A 25% Chance of winning it per FiveThirtyEight, and while I don’t agree with every single odds here, it’s the best I have to work with. Now time to say what’s going to happen in the Champions League.
PSG beat Real Madrid
Man City beat Sporting
Bayern beat RB Salzburg
Liverpool beat Inter
Chelsea beat Lille
Juventus beat Villarreal
Atlético beat Man Utd
Ajax beat Benfica
The Quarters draw goes like this:
Bayern vs Chelsea
Man City vs Atlético
Liverpool vs Juventus
Ajax vs PSG
Teams Advancing
Bayern
Man City
Liverpool
Ajax
Semi Finals
Bayern vs Man City
Liverpool vs Ajax
Man City vs Liverpool in the final
Man City wins!!!
Points Scoring
1st: 25 StPts
2nd: 20 StPts
3rd: 15 StPts
4th: 13 StPts
5th: 12StPts
6th: 11 StPts
7th: 10 StPts
8th: 9 StPts
9th: 8 StPts
10th: 7 StPts
11th: 6 StPts
12th: 5 StPts
13th: 4 StPts
14th: 3 StPts
15th & 16th: 0 StPts
Final Standings
16th: Lille – 3 StPts
15th: RB Salzburg – 51 StPts
14th: Villarreal – 59 StPts
13th: Juventus – 68 StPts
12th: Man Utd – 73 StPts
11th: Benfica – 77 StPts
10th: Sporting – 86 StPts
9th: Atlético – 96 StPts
8th: Chelsea – 105 StPts
7th: Inter – 108 StPts
6th: Real Madrid – 123 StPts
5th: PSG – 126 StPts
4th: Ajax – 166 StPts
3rd: Liverpool – 179 StPts
2nd: Bayern – 206 StPts
1st: Man City – 238 StPts
There you have it. I’m Jim James, until next time.