Coming out of an All-Star break that featured Pascal, Kyle and the entire Toronto Raptor Coaching staff, the Dinos have far and away exceeded everyone’s expectations other than their own. At 40-15, second in the East and third overall in the league, the Raptors have defied the pundits and their bandwagon is beginning to fill up and people are curious to know how the Raptors are likely to finish the final 27 regular season games left. Let’s have a look.
The Raptors have 13 home games remaining and 14 left on the road. Likewise they play 13 teams with sub .500 records and 14 above. The schedule includes three more games against the Bucks. Two of those (a home-and-home set), along with a three-game homestand with visits from the Celtics, Nuggets and Lakers, are part of stretch (March 18 – April 5) where the champs are playing nine of 10 against teams that currently have winning records. The Raptors’ longest homestand of the season is only four games, it’s their first four games after the All-Star break, and it includes visits from the Pacers (Sunday) and Bucks (Tuesday).
It is unlikely that the Raptors will find a way to make up 7 games on the Bucks to move into first place in the conference if for no other reason that the Bucks aren’t likely to lose another 7 games. Likewise, the 4th place Heat are 5 games back of Toronto and not likely to close that gap. So the question is, can the Raptors hold off the charging Celtics to finish 2nd and secure home court advantage in the second round.
Here are the key games for each team.
Raptors:
- V Milwaukee, Feb 25th (famous date around these parts)
- @ Denver, Mar 1st
- @ Philly, Mar 18th
- V Boston, Mar 20th
- V Nuggets, Mar 22nd
- V Lakers, Mar 24th
- @ Bucks, Apr 1st
- V Bucks, Apr 3rd
- @ Rockets, Apr 5th
- @ Miami, Apr 14th
Celtics
- @ Lakers, Feb 23rd
- @ Utah, Feb 26th
- V Houston Feb 29th
- V Utah, Mar 6th
- @ Bucks, Mar 12th
- @ Toronto, Mar 20th
- V Miami, Apr 1st
- V Bucks, Apr 5th
- @ Miami, Apr 11th (special day around these parts)
Given their opposition in the final 27 games and given no major, unforeseen injuries, I predict the Raptors will win 18 of their remaining games and end up with a record of 58-24. Boston on the other hand has 28 games remaining with a slightly easier schedule and I predict they will win 19 of those games to finish with a record of 57-25, good for 3rd in the conference.
Why is this important – because both the Raptors and the Celtics (like most NBA teams) are much better at home and if the second round series goes 7 games, the team with home court advantage wins over 80% of the time historically. Which all goes to make the Raptor/Celtic game on March 20th a milestone game. Prior predictions aside, it’s safe to say the winner of that game is most likely the winner of the coveted 2nd spot in the Eastern Conference and home court in the 2nd round.
Let’s look forward to an exciting and dramatic finish to the regular season and the most anticipated playoffs in recent memory.