Back in 2022, after Barcelona’s elimination from the Copa del Rey, and Ansu Fati’s injury, smack dab in the middle of our horrendous first year without Messi, I made a post called FC Barcelona – Endless Misery. Well, four long years later, here’s the Madrid version.
Let’s look back at June 1st, 2024. Wembley. Madrid vs Dortmund. Goals from Carvajal and Vini, and Real Madrid win their fifteenth Champions League title. This ended a superb Real Madrid season, in which they won the Champions League, La Liga, Supercopa, and only lost the Copa del Rey due to a 4-2 extra time loss against Atleti. Madrid would lose just twice in all comps all year, win the UCL unbeaten, and La Liga on 95 points, 10 above enemies Barcelona, and 19 above city rivals Atleti. It was nearly the perfect season. Then, two weeks after securing Europe’s most lucrative prize, they announced the signing of Europe’s most lucrative player, Kylian Mbappe, on a free. Mbappe was just 25 at the time of the announcement, and could still be at his prime for another half decade. How is anyone stopping this Madrid team?
Fast forward a year and a half to now. That Champions League is still their most recent major trophy, and after a full year with Mbappe, they failed to win anything, they lost the Supercopa to Barcelona, and just on Wednesday, lost the Copa del Rey, the sixth fumbled trophy in the past two years, to relegation-threatened second division club Albacete. After a trophiless 24/25, they sacked coach Carlo Ancelotti, hired Xabi Alonso as their ‘new long-term project manager’, and after losing the Club World Cup and Supercopa, along with having Madrid four points off top in La Liga, sacked him, hired Arbeloa, and have already lost the Copa del Rey to second-division Albacete. I went over the coaching change in a post just two days ago, so go look at that if you want a more detailed analysis. I want to make it clear – this result was not because of Arbeloa. Let me get into the issue more now.
While Madrid fans hoped that they could enter 2026 with some optimism, just two weeks into the new year, it’s clear the season’s a wash. I find it hard to see anyone stopping Barcelona from winning back-to-back league titles, a feat Madrid haven’t done since 2008, by the way, but if anyone’s going to stop the Catalans, how it’s going, I’d put my money on Villarreal over Madrid.
With the possibility of a Copa del Rey Clasico ruled out, and a Champions League Clasico unlikely, this fortunate Madrid team only has to play Barcelona one more time this season. That is, of course, unless they’re drawn in the playoff phase or Round of 16 in the Champions League. With 12 points and sitting seventh in the league phase table, Madrid have secured themselves a spot in at least the playoff round, regardless of their last two results against Monaco and Benfica. That means Madrid will be FORCED to play 180 minutes against someone. Those 90 minutes at the Bernabeu will feel extremely long for Los Blancos.
And what if they face an Arsenal? Or Bayern? Or PSG? Or Barca? They’ll have to play 180 minutes against one of those teams, and it could get extremely ugly. This could be an embarassment on another level for old Florentino Perez and his boys. Just last week, I put Real Madrid in as one of my eight teams with a good shot at the Champions League. Consider this my official redaction of that statement. I’ll put Inter in there instead, or just reduce it to seven teams, seven teams is still a lot.
To be frank, we’re unlikely to see Real Madrid continue at this horrible of a level for the rest of the season. Due to the law of probabilities, regression (or in this case ascension) to the mean, Real Madrid have to get some victories under Arbeloa, eventually. They have star power, which even if they all hate each other, still wins at least a few games. Kylian Mbappe could net a hattrick singlehandedly against Levante this weekend, and there’s not much Los Granotas could do to get a result. I’m not expecting anything crazy, like Madrid falling out of the Champions League spots or something, but it’s definitely a hard road for Madrid to win either trophy left this season.
So, that gets me to the question; What’s the problem? Well, we’ve seen two completely different managerial styles in Xabi Alonso and Ancelotti at the helm of Madrid, and neither have made it work. It’s the players. Simple. This is a conclusion that Bob (who I promise is still alive, despite what his posting schedule suggests) and I came to last season. If you go back to my post about Kylian Mbappe last season, I made it pretty obvious that I believed he was the issue holding Madrid back, and wouldn’t you know it, that’s what it appears to be. It’s certainly not a managerial issue.
Many people are saying that it’s an issue with Vini, or Bellingham, but the core issue is Kylian Mbappe, the man Madrid chased for seven years, from 2017 to 2024. Look at his PSG teams. They made only one final, and that was in a COVID year with one-legged quarterfinals and semifinals, and a path to the final of Dortmund, Atalanta, and Leipzig. That remains Mbappe’s closest way to the Champions League. He also made the semis twice with PSG, in 2021 after beating Barca and Bayern, then purely fumbling against City. He made it again in 2024, after quite a bit of luck in the quarters against Barca, then lost 2-0 on aggregate against Dortmund, after his PSG side hit the posts about seven times.
Look at Madrid, now. Madrid make the semis four years in a row, then in comes Mbappe, and out they go in the quarters to an inexperienced Arsenal side. Then you look back at that incredible 23/24 team, where 70% of the first team is still at Madrid, and you know that these guys couldn’t have all just turned horrible in two years. I mean sure, there was a bit of luck – actually a lot of luck – actually, more luck than I’ve ever seen one team have, but still. To an outsider looking in, it’s so obvious where the problem lies. Get rid of Vini if you want, but as long as Mbappe remains on your team, you won’t get that sixteenth Champions League.
Here’s what Madrid can do:
First, Perez could swallow a massive amount of pride, put Mbappe up for sale and hope and pray there’s some poor club out there who takes the bait.
Second, they could simply not play Mbappe until either the World Cup winner’s contract runs out or he demands to leave or have his contract terminated.
Third, they could hope that Perez either resigns or something comes up that forces Perez to not be President anymore, and whoever steps in gets rid of Mbappe.
Even if they just let his contract run out and see what happens, that would mean Madrid is in just the second of at least five years of misery with Mbappe at the club. The Frenchman’s contract ends in 2029, putting their earliest chance at the sixteenth in 2030, that is, if they don’t extend his contract further.
One positive Madridistas can take from this is that this has to be the low point. While I hate that “We’re Real Madrid, we’re too good for normal club things” mentalilty, it is still Real Madrid and this club can’t fall below a certain point, and I think that we’re at that point. I don’t know what Madrid is going to try to do to fix it, I said my piece, and it’s not my problem. I’m going to take the position of my fellow Culers, and just sit back and enjoy us getting our lick back for the 2020-2024 era.