The Over/Under on the Raptors 2021-2022
As readers should know, Jim and I are not betting men. However, heading into each new season we enjoy looking at the betting lines – the win/loss for each team. More specifically, we review what the sports betting sites predict teams will end up this season compared to last season. Which teams do they think will improve? Which teams do they think will fall off? And why.
The team nearest and dearest to our hearts is of course the Toronto Raptors. So let’s see what the wide craniums of betting knowledge are thinking about the Raptors for 21-22.
Last season, the Raptors had to endure playing in Tampa and it was not good. Injuries, COVID lost time and trade rumours were huge problems. The heart and soul of the team, Kyle Lowry, spent the first half of the season on the trade block but not enough for him and Pascal Siakam, the team’s heir apparent – contract wise at least – clashed with coach Nick Nurse to the point of suspension. Once the trade deadline passed and Lowry was still around, the team still didn’t make a concerted effort to get into the playoffs, leaving him on the sidelines to ‘rehab’ content to contend for a high lottery position.
Toronto finished the season 27-45. In an 82-game season, the equivalent would be a 31-win season.
In the off season Lowry did leave – to turn a phrase, you could say he took his talents to south beach. Has that been used before? Oh dear. In return, Toronto received Precious Achiuwa and Goran Dragic in the sign-and-trade deal. Dragic is still on the roster, though most seem to assume it won’t be for long. Either way, he represents a very decent asset for the club. Achiuwa will compete with Chris Boucher for minutes but has some potential to be a decent starting forward. Additionally, the Raptors did earn a respectable draft pick at number 4 in Scotty Barnes although it was surrounded by controversy in the fan base due to Jalen Suggs being the presumptive pick. Give Barnes some early credit, he looked good in summer league and in clips against legitimate NBA players including Donovan Mitchell.
Returning is the remainder of the 2020-2021 crew: Fred VanVleet, Siakam, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr. (swapped for Norman Powell at the deadline), Boucher, Malachi Flynn.
So the baseline is the equivalent of 31 wins last season, subtract Lowry. How many wins is that worth? Normally, many but what we saw last year were just small snippets of Lowry early in the season. He didn’t play the last quarter of the season. So not many after all. Very few.
Add – back at home, and (we assume) not dealing with as much COVID-19-related missed time. How many games is that worth? Plenty I figure Scotia Bank arena is definitely a loud and supportive venue and the fans are terrific. No doubt in my mind, the Raptors will add more games due to true home court advantage than losses with the departure of Lowry.
So on paper, it would seem likely that the Raptors will win more games this season than last. Here’s what Vegas thinks: according to Action Network, Toronto’s 2021-22 over/under win total is 37. This would be the equivalent of a 6-game improvement, but still not enough to get to .500. It’s simultaneously a vote of confidence that 2020-21 was an aberration and the low point for this core and a vote of non-confidence in this core’s ability to compete at the top of the East. It is a determination that no, Toronto is not as bad as they looked last season but no, Toronto is not exactly *good* either.
If I was a betting man, I’d take the over. There are going to be a lot of players on the Raptors this year with something to prove. Fred VanVleet will want to prove he is the leader of this squad and will take a lot of offensive responsibility. More perhaps than he should. Playing in the shadow of Kyle Lowry benefitted Fred greatly and he needs to be careful he doesn’t try and do too much. OG Anunoby wants to finally put a solid offensive and defensive season together and show everyone exactly how good he really is. And of course Pascal Siakam. He with what should be the biggest chip on his shoulder. He must come out early firing and establish himself as the Raptors main scoring threat.
Defensive is where the Raptors must thrive and they must be a top defensive team in the league this year to begin validating Masai’s theory and long term vision. No doubt they have the personnel and the management philosophy to be a defense first team, now they just have to make it happen. If they can be a top 5 defensive team this year, then they will blow away the 37 game prediction feasting on the low and middle ability squads but the conference elites will be too much for their meagre offensive abilities.
Where the Raptors remain weak is down the center. Aaron Baynes proved no replacement for Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol and the Raptors have no one over 6’9” on the squad. Yes it’s true they have 7 guys who are 6’9”, but no long, lane dominating presence. And with this young squad, that will hurt. Masai is espousing position less basketball, a team full of 6’9” guys capable of playing any position and guarding 1 through 5 and it would seem he is halfway there while still very early in the project.
On the other side of the ledger however, there remain many variables. For example, if injuries and covid again conspire against the Raptors early in the season, will management make the decision to take a run at the lottery? There are several very highly anticipated talents lurking in the 2022 draft. Who would blame Masai for taking one more trip to the well before swinging for the fences? No one. In fact, no one is expecting too much out the Raptors this season in a best case scenario. “We are not a team of now,” said Ujiri recently, tempering early expectations. Perhaps, in the medium and long term, one more tank season would be in the collective best interest.
On the other side of the coin are those who say that too much losing early poisons a young club. There are many, many teams out there that seem to fit that bill. Sacramento anyone? Minnesota? Orlando? Too many times it seems that highly prized talents find themselves in situations not conducive or not totally focussed on winning and promising careers seem to fizzle out early. Many say it’s vital to try and win and never permit losing to be okay.
Which way will the Raptors go this season? If I’ve become a student of Ujiri, I’d say he’s going to try hard to win straight out of the gate until Christmas and see what he’s got. Then he’ll analyze the results and make a decision on the balance of the season. So watch early and often before decisions start being made for other reasons.