(Please note: The following has been written before Feb 6th so some standings and references may be off)
Liverpool have recently become a juggernaut of English and world football. Under Klopp, they recorded a 6th Champions League trophy and ended their title drought of 30 years. There was much optimism about Liverpool equaling United’s record of 20 titles. However, little has gone to plan for Klopp’s side this season. Liverpool have faced many injuries and currently find themselves in 4th, with the potential of being knocked out of the top 4 by bitter rivals Everton if they win their games in hand. But what would happen if Liverpool finished the season outside of the top 4? Let’s find out!
To start, we should determine what the table would look like. For Liverpool to finish outside the top 4, they would need to lose games. This is pretty simple, considering that Liverpool’s next 3 Premier League games include City, Leicester, and Everton. Let’s assume in this hypothetical scenario that Liverpool lose those three games, kickstarting form sending them spiraling down the table. Meanwhile, Leicester and Everton will get a bounce from their victory, finishing 3rd and 4th respectively, while City would get the boost to win the title, followed by runner-ups United. Liverpool would then have 2 games to bounce back with in Sheffield and Fulham, but the damage would have been done. Of course, there are many other inconsistent teams in the league but I think that West Ham and Chelsea will capitalize on Liverpool’s poor form and snatch the 5th and 6th places.
This leaves 7th place for Liverpool. A 7th place finish would mean the Conference League on a normal basis. However, unfortunately for Liverpool, they aren’t getting into Europe AT ALL. Why? It’s because of the Europa League. The winner of the Europa League will qualify automatically for the CL. However, the team I predict to win the Europa League is Spurs. I think this because with a serial winner like Mourinho, and the biggest competition focusing on more important matters (Man United on winning the title) Spurs will be in the perfect position to win themselves a trophy. Now, in this reality, Spurs haven’t finished in the top 7, meaning there will be 5 teams in the CL. The one team finishing in the Europa League is West Ham, and the team in the Conference will be Chelsea. Liverpool will be knocked out of Europe entirely.
To conclude part one, we have to determine which teams stay up and who goes down. The teams I think will go down are Sheffield United, West Brom, and Newcastle United. Now, the first 2 are pretty self-explanatory. However, why am I predicting that Newcastle United will go down, instead of Fulham? Fulham have 3 games which I back them to win (Burnley, Sheffield United, Crystal Palace) followed by a tough run of games from March through to May starting with, you guessed it… Liverpool! Now, in this reality, Liverpool have lost several games leading up to this reality, before being stalled to a point by Sheffield United. Their poor form would have transferred to the CL and Leipzig would have the advantage heading into the second leg. As such, Liverpool will field a weakened side against Fulham, in preparation for Leipzig. Fulham, who were originally coming off good form, will fight their way past Liverpool to a hard-earned 3 points before using this form to gather enough points to take it to the final day against Newcastle (who themselves would have lost to Leicester and City before getting a dissatisfying point against Sheffield). Here, Fulham would be able to edge out a draw to keep them up, sentencing Bruce and co. to the drop.
Now for who goes up, I back Swansea to win the league. Crazy yes, but they seem like the team best suited for the title. So far, Watford and Bournemouth have bottled the title, and Norwich are on course to do the same, with 3 losses from their past 3 games. Next, I back Watford to bounce back up. Sure, they are currently in a slump but surely, a team who could cut through the title winners can cut through Preston North End. I back Sarr and Deeney to carry this team up and into the Premier League (however, with Sarr likely getting a move to a bigger club and Deeney retiring soon I seriously doubt that they will stay up – more on that in later parts). Now predicting the 3rd spot is near impossible. This is because in knockout football (championship playoffs) form and bouncing back doesn’t matter – you only get one chance. Despite this, I think it will be Norwich City who go up through the playoffs. I think that Todd Cantwell, Teemu Pukki, and Emi Buendia will fire Norwich past one-man team Reading in the semifinals before beating Brentford in the finals to secure themselves promotion.
In conclusion, the foundation has been set for this series. We have concluded that the teams finishing in the CL places are City, United, Leicester, and Everton (in that order) qualifying along with Spurs who won the Europa, West Ham in 5th will be playing on Thursdays in the Europa League, as will Chelsea except they play on Thursdays in the Conference League. Liverpool will finish outside any European spots. Sheffield United, West Brom, and Newcastle United will be going down, getting replaced by Swansea, Watford, and Norwich. This has been a very long introduction so I will likely be creating more parts for this series. Next time we will be focusing on the transfer window. Of course, in the time it takes to create part 2, Liverpool will likely beat CIty, Leicester, and Everton’s form will both drop off a cliff and Newcastle will start playing like prime Barcelona. As they say, I’ve well and truly jinxed it. And on that note, this is Jacob King, and I’ll see you at full time.