We finally know the blueprint for how the 2025/26 Champions League will finish. We have some massive draws, killer ties, and absolutely no clue who’s going to win, or who the favourites even are. So, today, I will be going through each and every team still in Europe’s premier club competition, and providing a reason why they will win it, and a reason why they won’t. Let’s get into it.
PSG
League: Ligue 1 (1st)
24/25 Performance: UCL Champions
League Phase Performance: 11th
RO16 Opponent: Chelsea
Why They Will: Firepower
Don’t get it twisted, PSG is still PSG. Despite shaky performances to start 2026, the reigning sextuple winners are still one of the favourites to win it. This is a team that’s getting healthy, and who will be a nightmare for whoever stands in their way. Not only do you have Dembele, Doue, Kvaratskhelia, Vitinha, Hakimi, and Nuno Mendes, but you also have a near-complete starting XI of talent, with an elite manager, Lucho Enrique, to round it off.
Why They Won’t: The Draw
The draw may be too much for poor old PSG. This club always seems to get the hardest draws, and once again they’ll be getting one here. In the Round of 16, they rematch with the team that beat them 3-0 back in July in the Club World Cup final, they’ll likely see Liverpool in the Quarters, one of Bayern, Man City, or Real Madrid in the semis, and either Barcelona or Arsenal in the final. That is a crazy schedule, and if they can go back-to-back, having to go through that, they deserve it.
Chelsea
League: Premier League (5th)
24/25 Performance: UECL Champions
League Phase Performance: 5th
RO16 Opponent: PSG
Why They Will: Clutch Mentality
Chelsea are such a weird team, because they always seem to be great in the big games despite being next to useless in smaller ones. They’ve beat Barcelona and PSG with 3-0 scorelines in recent memory, have got draws against City and Arsenal, and beat Spurs and Napoli. When it comes to big games, Chelsea are one of the best teams in the world and they have a very good shot of making a deep run here.
Why They Won’t: Inconsistency
You live by the inconsistency, you die by the inconsistency. Chelsea have held up in most big games so far this season, but if their ugly side shows in either leg against PSG, or any tie for that matter, they’re mincemeat. This is a team without a lot of top-end talent; their only undebatably world-class players are Cole Palmer and Moises Caicedo. If either of them gets injured, or if they just decide to not show up for any knockout match, they’re as good as out. Put that on top of a Premier League Top 4 dogfight, and Chelsea are in trouble.
Liverpool
League: Premier League (6th)
24/25 Performance: UCL RO16
League Phase Performance: 3rd
RO16 Opponent: Galatasaray
Why They Will: Anfield
Liverpool is a team who have a lot of good talent, and are responsible for some of the greatest Champions League nights in history with the atmosphere at Anfield. Just think back to their legendary comeback against Barcelona in 2019. Would that have been possible without the roars of their equally legendary ground? I think not.
Why They Won’t: Arne Slot
Liverpool have wealths of talent, have spent half a billion euros on it this season alone, and yet still Arne Slot refuses to drop Cody Gakpo on the left. Some of Slot’s decisions this season have just left me, and the football world so confused. Combine that with Mohamed Salah’s ongoing cold war with the Dutch coach, and I don’t see Liverpool having enough to win.
Galatasaray
League: Turkish Super Lig (1st)
24/25 Performance: UEL KO Playoff
League Phase Performance: 20th
RO16 Opponent: Liverpool
Why They Will: The Home Leg
Any team facing Galatasaray away in Turkiye has their work cut out for them. They have arguably the hardest away day of anyone here, and it shows. They’ve already beat Liverpool in Turkiye in the league phase, and put five past Juventus at their ground. When it comes to the home leg, Galatasaray can level with any club in the world.
Why They Won’t: The Away Leg
…but without the support of their fans, Galatasaray just dont have the mettle to win it. In the playoff, Galatasaray fumbled a three-goal lead against Juventus and had to nick it in extra time in Italy, and that’s just not sustainable for three more two-legged ties. Combine that with the fact that every second leg they’ll have to play will away from home, and Gala just don’t have a chance.
Real Madrid
League: La Liga (2nd)
24/25 Performance: UCL QF
League Phase Performance: 9th
RO16 Opponent: Man City
Why They Will: Pure Talent
In tournaments, you can rely on talent more than in big 38-game leagues. In tournaments, you can rock up with the better team and you just have to beat what’s in front of you, simple. In tournaments, talent is king. And no team has more pure talent than Real Madrid. Mbappe, looking to break Cristiano Ronaldo’s Champions League goal record, Vini, Bellingham, Trent, Courtois, Valverde are just part of this incredibly deep squad. While the club’s chemistry is far from ideal, Real Madrid have the talent to out differences aside, lock in, and make a push for their fifteenth Champions League.
Why They Won’t: Not a Team
There’s a reason why Real Madrid are still trophyless and on manager #3 of the Mbappe experiment just 18 months in. There is something seriously wrong in the foundations of this team, and even though Real Madrid, no matter how bad, are always favourites to win, I just can’t see it this year. My theory is that however long Mbappe’s there, Madrid will not win the Champions League. I also think Mbappe won’t beat Ronaldo’s scoring record. I just can’t see him scoring four times in these knockouts.
Man City
League: Premier League (2nd)
24/25 Performance: UCL KO Playoff
League Phase Performance: 8th
RO16 Opponent: Real Madrid
Why They Will: Erling Haaland
Let’s just go for the obvious one. Man City have a top two striker in world football, and people are forgetting just how good he is. Now, with a genuinely scary team beside him, Man City are loaded with firepower. It’s hard to find any other team more well-prepared than City to win it, and I think they could smash Real Madrid as they prepare to play them for a whopping twelfth and thirteenth time this decade. A potential quarterfinal tie with Bayern Munich looks absolutely tasty.
Why They Won’t: The Premier League
There are many teams in these knockouts embroiled in title fights or top four charges, but Man City’s push is a little different. Having to push, and come from behind in a title fight is immediately harder than anything else these clubs have, and with quite a few players inexperienced with fighting wars on multiple fronts, it could spell disaster for their hopes.
Atalanta
League: Serie A (7th)
24/25 Performance: UCL KO Playoff
League Phase Performance: 15th
RO16 Opponent: Bayern
Why They Will: Tough to Beat
Atalanta are a massive wildcard team, and in so many cases have shown just how tough of a nut they are to crack. Just ask Bayern’s rivals, Borussia Dortmund, who Atalanta pulled off a miracle comeback against in the playoff.
Why They Won’t: They got Bayern
Sadly, I think Atalanta is the furthest team from winning it. They have likely the toughest schedule of any club. Here’s a list of their likely opponents each round
RO16: Bayern
QF: City
SF: PSG
Final: Arsenal
Come back all you want, there’s just no shot Atalanta make it through all of them, I don’t think there’s any team in the world who could.
Bayern
League: Bundesliga (1st)
24/25 Performance: UCL QF
League Phase Performance: 2nd
RO16 Opponent: Atalanta
Why They Will: Best Attack in the World
Take a look at this Bayern attack and tell me if it isn’t the best attack you’ve seen since MSN. On the left, Luis Diaz, an incredible G/A producer and potential signing of the season. Down the middle, Harry Kane, on track for a 70-goal season. On the right, Michael Olise, a beautiful, electric dribbler who can unlock any defence. Behind all of them, the metronome, Jamal Musiala. Then on the bench, you have Lennart Karl as depth. Who is clamping that?
Why They Won’t: GK Situation
If anything takes out Bayern, it’s their lack of a world-class goalkeeper. While they have Manuel Neuer, he’s just not it anymore as he approaches 40. After Neuer, they have Jonas Urbig, who’s okay but also not Champions League quality. When it comes to a big tie against Man City, who have an incredible attack, Bayern could leak goals.
Newcastle
League: Premier League (11th)
24/25 Performance: Not in Europe
League Phase Performance: 12th
RO16 Opponent: Barcelona
Why They Will: Anthony Gordon
With 10 goals so far this season in the competition, Anthony Gordon is the truth for Newcastle. He scored four against Qarabag in the first half, and he’s a scary matchup for any defence that faces him in this competition.
Why They Won’t: Marcus Rashford
I just can’t see Newcastle get by Barcelona in the Round of 16, especially a Marcus Rashford looking to repeat his league phase heroics against the club. I also just see this stage being too much for the Magpies, who’ll be a bit starstruck against a Barcelona side who are used to being here.
Barcelona
League: La Liga (1st)
24/25 Performance: UCL Semis
League Phase Performance: 5th
RO16 Opponent: Newcastle
Why They Will: Impossible to Gameplan
Sure, Barcelona’s attack isn’t as deep as Bayern’s, but it’s harder to gameplan for. Lamine Yamal is a threat and sure, when Raphinha’s away you can triple team the 18-year old, but when fully fit, there’s no member of this team you can leave unmarked. Add players like Pedri and Fermin to an attack with Yamal, Raphinha, a chaotic Ferran Torres, with super subs like Marcus Rashford and Roony Bardghji, and it’s genuinely a defence’s worst nightmare. To add to that, if Barcelona can somehow pull it back against Atlético Madrid in the second leg of the Copa del Rey and overcome a 4-goal deficit, it strikes confidence in them that’ll last the rest of the season, especially in a potential quarterfinal rematch between the two.
Why They Won’t: Defence
However good Barca’s attack is, their defence is still their defence. Flick’s highline works well on its day, but is too shaky and inconsistent to rely on for a Champions League run. If this high line shipped four to Atlético Madrid in a single half, imagine what a Bayern Munich or PSG team could do to it.
Atlético Madrid
League: La Liga (4th)
24/25 Performance: UCL RO16
League Phase Performance: 14th
RO16 Opponent: Spurs
Why They Will: Simeone Magic
All the talk is suggesting that Atlético Madrid boss Diego Simeone will finally leave the club this summer after a ridiculous fifteen years at the club. If the boss stays at Atleti much longer, there’ll be kids playing for the first team who weren’t even alive to see their club managed by another man. However, if it is his last year, he’ll be making a push, firing up his boys to make a magical push to finally win it after two failed final runs.
Why They Won’t: Inconsistency
Diego Simeone’s Atleti have finally found how to work offensively. But it’s come at a defensive cost, and a cost of being consistently inconsistent. This team shipped four to Club Brugge in the playoff, lost 3-0 to Rayo days after smashing Barcelona, and have been seen conceding multiple goals shockingly often for a Simeone team. Like we said with Chelsea earlier, if we get the bad Atleti at any point in this run, they’re done for.
Spurs
League: Premier League (16th)
24/25 Performance: UEL Champions
League Phase Performance: 4th
RO16 Opponent: Atleti
Why They Will: Karma
Spurs fans have suffered a lot, and genuinely the only way I see them winning it is through sheer karma. With anything in the Premier League far out of reach, maybe they focus on the Champions League and are able to make a run. However, I’ve really been struggling to find a reason why they’ll win it.
Why They Won’t: Spursy
Let’s be real, Spurs aren’t winning it. They just don’t have the cojones on the big stage to do it, and are too focused on simple survival in the Premier League to try to win this competition. They also just don’t have the level of talent on any stage to close it out.
Bodo/Glimt
League: Norwegian Eliteserien (N.A)
24/25 Performance: UEL Semis
League Phase Performance: 23rd
RO16 Opponent: Sporting
Why They Will: Magic of Norway
In their last four matches, this seemingly small Norwegian side has beaten Man City, trounced Atlético Madrid, and beaten Inter Milan twice. There’s something incredible about this team, and with these results, they for sure can get by Sporting in the Round of 16, and with some luck could even get through potential matchups with Arsenal and Barcelona further down the line to make the final. From there, anything could happen in one match, no matter who they face.
Why They Won’t: Lack of Pure Talent
One thing fairytale teams seemingly never do is actually win the thing. Unless you’re Greece in 2004 or Leicester in 2016, you aren’t going to actually win it. Especially the Champions League, with its incredible pure talent and skill levels at the highest they’ve ever been since the mid-2010s. Bodo/Glimt might make a run, but getting through four more tough matchups on their way to winning it is nigh-on impossible. It’s still incredible that they made it this far, though, considering their situation with three matches to go, 32nd with two points with Dortmund, City, and Atlético as their remaining matches.
Sporting
League: Liga NOS (2nd)
24/25 Performance: UCL KO Playoff
League Phase Performance: 7th
RO16 Opponent: Bodo/Glimt
Why They Will: Confidence Boost
Getting past Bodo/Glimt would be a massive confidence boost, and perhaps enough to gain some momentum for a surprise run from Sporting. Plus Arsenal’s unpredictability in tournaments could fall their way, and from there it’s just three games. You laugh now, but this is a team who beat PSG, Marseille, and Bilbao. They could well do it.
Why They Won’t: The Draw
After the Bodo tie, however, Sporting have one of the toughest draws of anyone left. First, they’d have to get through Arsenal in the Round of 16, probably having won 10 of 10 matches in the competition so far this season. If they get through that, it’s likely a matchup with a Barcelona team featuring Yamal, Pedri, and Raphinha. Then, if they somehow get through that, it’s a CL final date with likely one of Bayern, City, or PSG. They’d create a new tier in the pantheon of football greats if they could get through it, but they, understandably, won’t.
Leverkusen
League: Bundesliga (6th)
24/25 Performance UCL RO16
League Phase Performance: 16th
RO16 Opponent: Arsenal
Why They Will: Unpredictability
Nobody really knows what to expect from this Leverkusen team. Now removed from the Alonso-Wirtz-Invincibles chapter, their incredibly short Erik Ten Hag era has given way to a new era under managerial unknown Kasper Hjulmand. While a couple mainstays from the invincibles team remain, such as Grimaldo, Andrich, and Tapsoba, the core of this team is brand new. A whopping 14 members of this Leverkusen team are in their first season, such as crucial players Jarrell Quansah, Loic Bade, Mark Flekken, Ibrahim Maza, Malik Tillman, and Ernest Poku. It’s an exciting young squad that could make waves if given time, and it’s unpredictability that could get them far in this competition.
Why They Won’t: They Got Arsenal
Similar to Atalanta, I just don’t see this team causing a slip-up for one of the tournament favourites. While Leverkusen are good, they’re facing a team that is on a mission. There’s close to zero chance they get through that matchup, as much as I’d love to see an upset.
Arsenal
League: Premier League (1st)
24/25 Performance: UCL Semis
League Phase Performance: 1st
RO16 Opponent: Leverkusen
Why They Will: The draw & defence
If there’s one team that you can put as a lock to make the semifinals, it’s Arsenal. They’ve been given a great draw, have ducked a potential Man City quarterfinal tie to boot, and when it gets to the semifinal, it’s just three matches to victory. With a likely tie against Barcelona coming, their defence is probably the only one that could lock up Yamal, Pedri, and Raphinha across two legs, if there’s anyone that could.
Why They Won’t: Their attack & Inexperience
One of the things a Champions League winner needs is a good attack. Look at the previous winners. PSG’s attack last year consisted of Ballon D’Or winner Ousmane Dembele flanked by Desire Doue and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Real Madrid the year before had Vini, Rodrygo, and false nine Bellingham. Man City’s in 2023 had Grealish, Haaland, and Phil Foden. Arsenal’s attack pales in comparison to any of these. Bukayo Saka is a good winger, sure, but is just a tier below players like Dembele, Haaland, and Vini. Viktor Gyokeres is terribly inconsistent, and Arsenal may have to rely on Kai Havertz or Gabriel Jesus for the 9, and their LW situation is a mess. Is it Martinelli? Is it Trossard? Neither are Champions League win quality. On top of that, they just don’t have the late-stage tournament experience as of yet to have that killer mentality to close out the win.
There we have it, why every team will and won’t win the Champions League. Obviously, there can only be one winner, but there also has to be a winner, so a lot of this won’t age very well. Once the tournament ends in June, we’ll take a look at this article and see what I got right and wrong, but for now, that’s all for today. I’m Jim James, until next time.
