Cast your minds back to January. Things couldn’t be much worse for FC Barcelona. After having their butts handed to them by their bitter rivals, Real Madrid in the Supercopa final, they were eliminated from the Copa del Rey after shipping 4 to Bilbao at San Mames, a game in which they also lost promising LB Alex Balde for the rest of the year after sustaining a hamstring injury. Finally, after coming back from 2-0 down to take a 3-2 lead vs Villarreal, Xavi’s men conceded 3 goals after the 80th minute to lose 5-3 at home to a mid-table side. After the game, Xavi announced he’d be leaving Barca at the end of the season, finally snapping. Even the wins in January weren’t proud victories. Their victory on January 4th against Las Palmas came after a stoppage time penalty, they conceded 3 goals in 2 games against 3rd division opposition, their 4-2 Betis win came after very shaky circumstances after collapsing from 2-0 up to see the side from Seville level at 2-all before the Catalans scored 2 late goals to win it. Even their 1-0 win against Osasuna at the end of the month came after 18-year old January signing Vitor Roque had to provide heroics off the bench, scoring less than a minute after coming on. Their only comfortable victory that whole month in 9 matches was a 2-0 win against that same Osasuna side in the Supercopa semifinals, a result which didn’t count for anything in the league or Copa del Rey, and took them to a final in which they’d lose 4-1. In total, they conceded 19 goals in 9 matches that month. Forget Champions League glory or La Liga contention, this team was struggling to make top 4.
However, since the aforementioned 5-3 loss against Villarreal, Barcelona haven’t lost a match, winning 7 and drawing 3 in their last 10. They’ve also only conceded 7 goals in that same time frame. Their last 7 matches have been even better, winning 5 and drawing 2, scoring 14 and conceding 3. Their two most recent games also have finally started to make Barca fans confident about their side, a 3-1 win against Napoli to see the club progress to the Quarterfinals of the Champions League, and a 3-0 win against fellow perennial La Liga contenders Atlético Madrid, at the seemingly impenetrable fortress that is the Wanda Metropolitano. The Catalans have also moved to second place in La Liga, 8 points behind Real Madrid and looking for last gasp heroics to somehow steal the league from Real Madrid.
Barcelona have also qualified to the quarter final stage of the Champions League, a stage at which they haven’t qualified since 2020, when Leo Messi was still at the club. Back in January, 2nd place in La Liga and CL quarter finals were looked at as a pipe dream, best case scenario, in a season which was a writeoff at that stage. However it is now their reality. What happened?
The big one; the return of their numero uno inbetween the sticks. Marc-Andre Ter Stegen got an injury during November internationals which seemingly only ruled him out for a number of days, but as the days went by and the German was nowhere to be found, the case kept getting weirder and weirder. Then, it was revealed that Ter Stegen would have to undergo back surgery to fix his problem, keeping him out until February. In his place came young, inexperienced stopper Inaki Pena, who started with some good performances, keeping goal in a 2-1 win at home to Porto in the Champions League, a win which sealed top of theigroup for Barca, and a 1-0 win vs Atlético Madrid in the league. However, it went downhill from there, conceding 7 in 2 matches vs Girona and Antwerp, both losses.
The horrid January we talked about at the start was also while Pena was in goal, and Ter Stegen didn’t return until February, a 3-3 draw against Granada, the only time in 8 matches he’s conceded multiple goals in a match. The turnaround for Barcelona has been so that now we can have a conversation about this season perhaps being the best season for Barca in recent years. Casting our minds back to 2019, Barcelona’s 2018/19 season will perhaps be remembered for being the biggest missed opportunity in the club’s recent memory. They looked to be on course to complete a historic third treble that year, placed first in La Liga, in the Copa del Rey final against Valencia, and with a 3-0 lead against Liverpool after the first leg of the Champions League Semi Finals, where they’d face either a Tottenham side that’s allergic to trophies or an Ajax side that isn’t even in one of the best 5 leagues in the world. However, Barca’s world crumbled before them, losing to Valencia in that Copa del Rey final, and somehow losing 4-0 to Liverpool in the second leg of the semifinals. They walked away with only a La Liga to show from that season. Despite the gloomy mood radiating from the club after that season, it’s still been their best season in the last 9. Since then, let me take you through their endeavors in the 3 major competitions.
2019/20: 2nd in La Liga, loss in CL Quarter Finals (8-2 vs Bayern), loss in CdR quarterfinals (1-0 vs Bilbao)
2020/21: 3rd in La Liga, loss in CL RO16 (5-2 vs PSG), won CdR
2021/22: 2nd in La Liga, loss in CL Group Stage, loss in Europa League quarter finals (4-3 vs Frankfurt), loss in CdR RO16 (3-2 vs Bilbao)
2022/23: 1st in La Liga, loss in CL Group Stage, loss in Europa League preliminary round (4-3 vs Man Utd), loss in CdR Semis (4-1 vs Real Madrid)
Now let’s look at their performance so far this season;
2023/24: 2nd in La Liga, CL Quarter Finals, loss in CdR quarterfinals (4-2 vs Bilbao)
For a writeoff season, they’ve been doing quite well, and have two winnable matchups in a row in the CL which could send them to their first final since 2015, when they won the whole thing. Also, they just need a little luck and a Clasico win vs Madrid in La Liga to be right there with a shot to win the whole thing once again. How realistic is that, however? Can Barcelona really have their best year in half a decade with one of the youngest squads they’ve ever had?
Well, let’s start with La Liga. They and Real Madrid both have 10 league matches remaining. Barcelona have mostly beatable opponents, however, they’ll have the obvious El Clasico against rivals Real Madrid. Only a win will do on that front, and even a draw will put them out of contention for La Liga. They also have two other potential stumbling blocks, Girona and Rayo Vallecano. Girona was in contention for a shock La Liga until the start of March, when they finally started to slip under all the pressure, and it’ll be a game which can go both ways. Will Girona be easier than usual after slipping in the title race down to 3rd place, demoralising the squad? Or will Girona show the same prowess they did in December’s 4-2 win against Barca? Then there’s Rayo Vallecano, who Barca haven’t beaten in 5 attempts since the minnows’ promotion. The long and short of it is that they’ll really have to win every single La Liga game for the rest of the season to win it, and Real Madrid will also have to stumble themselves, having to either draw 2 and lose 1 or lose 2 to bottle it, not including El Clasico, and that’s if Barca win their remaining matches. This is a side that hasn’t lost to anyone but Atleti this season. It’s very unlikely that Barca claws it back from here, but still possible.
What about the Champions League? Barca are in the quarterfinals of the competition for the first time since 2020, and they’re facing an Mbappe-led PSG side. Whether Mbappe is on his game or not will decide that matchup. Luckily for Barca, they have someone who may just be the best person at man-marking someone out of a game in the world; Ronald Araujo. Whenever Barcelona is facing a massive attacking threat, like a Vinicius Jr or Jude Bellingham when playing Real Madrid, or likely Mbappe at PSG, Araujo is found constantly tracking him, and can make him obsolete in an instant. It’s expected that the Uruguayan will do that again with Mbappe in the PSG tie, which will make the French club have to look toward other options in attack. Without Mbappe, Les Parisiens are beatable, having significantly weakened in attack after the departures of Lionel Messi and Neymar in the summer of 2023. Without Mbappe, Barcelona will have an advantage against PSG, but if Mbappe can beat the Araujo test, which he’s capable of doing, PSG will likely walk away from this one.
Say Barcelona get past PSG, they have a much easier tie in the semifinals waiting for them. They will either face Atlético Madrid or Borussia Dortmund. They’ve beat Atleti twice this season, and this Dortmund team is significantly less strong than it has been in recent years, without Erling Haaland or Jude Bellingham. This current Barcelona team is likely favourites against both of those sides. However, even if they do make it to the final, the only side I see Barcelona being favourites against out of the four they can match up against is Arsenal, and even that is close. However, with a young team, a UCL final would be ideal experience for them. It is definitely possible.
The last thing to take into account is injuries. We’re currently in an international break, which usually aren’t friendly to Barcelona, and with so many players going to their national teams, I will be on edge until they’re all back in training waiting for the announcement of an injury to a key player.
However, I can’t really say if Barcelona will shut it down here or if they can keep pushing on. The month of April will be crucial for this team. I can’t wait to see it, and every game from here on in is a must-win if we want to win a trophy this year. I’m Jim James, until next time.