NBA Coaching – How much of a Difference does it make?
One axiom we have heard and probably parroted many times over the years is that coaches get too much credit when the team does well and too much blame when the team does poorly. But is it true? Today we thought it might be fun to take a deeper dive into just how much a good coach can impact a team’s performance.
Certainly there are a few coaches who seem to have found the secret recipe for winning. Phil Jackson, Don Nelson and Gregg Popovitch spring immediately to mind while the Association is littered with innumerable coaches that never lasted a full season. We’re looking at you Bob Wiess, Gar Heard and Jerry Tarkanian to name but a few. So what makes the difference between a successful coach and an unsuccessful coach?
First of all and perhaps most obviously, the biggest asset a coach can have is a good roster. As we approach either extreme – great talent vs very little talent – the coaches impact reduces. After all, the best coach in history isn’t going to get the worst squad a championship and yet a poor coach can still win if he has enough talent. For example, look at the Golden State Warriors. Dominating as they have been under Steve Kerr’s steady guiding hand, they have been every bit as successful — actually statistically even more successful — during Kerr’s two extended absences from the team when Luke Walton and then Mike Brown (not exactly Hall of Fame coaches) took the helm. And of course more recently, with the loss of Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant, the team took a major dive in the standings. Further, Phil Jackson could do nothing with a talent challenged Knicks team nor has Gregg Popovich had much success after losing his top stars.
Of course there are exceptions to every rule. A deft touch with a mercurial player can make a huge difference to a championship team’s aspirations or a particularly bad call from a poor coach can increase the risk of an untimely injury or turn off a sensitive superstar and ruin a championship run, but on the whole, the single most important indicator of coach success is player talent level on the team coached.
The second most important factor in a coach’s success is the quality of the organization including the relationship between the coach, the GM and the team President. So many things have to go right in order for a team to win a championship. So many factors go into the finished product we see on the floor at game time that an organization has to be aligned for success. Too many organizations are run by people more interested in profit than winning and can’t seem to understand the correlation between the two. This is the biggest single reason that 36% of the teams in the NBA have never won a single championship. They must have a strategy to succeed and they must all be aligned in what is a multi-year pursuit of a championship. Egos must be checked at the door and in the high powered, highly paid world of sports egos are an essential part of the business. So egos must be checked and checked for extended periods of time.
So the team is talented and the organization is solid and aligned in their pursuit of a championship. What does the coach need to do in order to make the team more than just the sum of it’s parts.
Let’s look at the specific responsibilities of an NBA coach and the difference a good coach can make.
Team Strategy: NBA coaches are responsible for offensive and defensive philosophies of the team and bring with them a wealth of experience in this regard with their playbooks traveling with them to every team they go to. In it’s simplest terms, this is ‘the plan’ the coach has to make the team more than the sum of it’s individuals. Mike D’Antoni had the 7 second offense, Phil Jackson mastered the triangle offense, Pat Riley was the master of the half court. The ‘Plan’ is important.
Strategy Implementation: As important to the outcome as the ‘Plan’, even more important is execution of the plan and I would suggest this is where great coaches have the opportunity to distinguish themselves from the rest. Coming from a certain school of thought is one thing but to be able to implement the philosophy into comprehensive offensive/defensive schemes and knowing the in’s and out’s of those schemes is critical for an NBA coach. But even this is not enough. Every ‘Plan’ must also be adjusted for personnel. If the coach wants to shoot more 3 pointers than any team in history, he might want to have some high percentage 3 point shooters or this strategy is going to fail. A team can’t be a great defensive team if the players can’t understand how to play top level defense. A great coach must take a skills inventory and understand what his team is capable of and what it is not. Then, after any player transactions have been finagled, the coach must implement a version of his system that gets the most out of the team he has.
Practice Management: Running a practice at the NBA level is critical. Players are only available for so many practises, particularly during the season. Every minute of every practise must be planned to the smallest detail. Practise must be intense but not so intense as to risk injury. Every play has to be thoroughly dissected and analyzed and this requires a strong analytical mindset. Criticism must be communicated positively but clearly. Often there is a lot of video analysis of opposing teams required to gain minute advantages and to learn the various plays of their offensive schemes. Rookies need to be taught the team playbook and the various nuances of playing at the highest level and often that takes time away from veterans. So many things to balance.
Player Development: An underrated part of an NBA coach’s job, for most teams, player development is vital to the growth of the team. No team has access to all the talent and in fact most teams have very limited access to some of the league’s top talent due to geography. All of the top player free agents have many options on where they would like to play and most of those choose warm, sunny locals, often by the ocean. As a result, most coaches have to make the most of the resources they have available to them and this is the other area where a top coach can distinguish themselves. How they interact and communicate with a gaggle of young millionaires, some as young as 18 and 19, ultimately determines how successful they will be.
None of these tasks are easy and all are time consuming. An NBA coach must put in many hours of preparation for every hour they are actually in front of their players. Ultimately, they impact the team in many ways and to that end perhaps we should consider them as the team’s real 6th man. Research out of MIT suggests that NBA coaches account for about a 20-30% swing in a team’s results. So a good coach can add about 20 wins to a typical NBA season given an 82 game season. I’d say that is substantial.